Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 160453
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
950 PM MST WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. UNSEASONABLY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR EAST OF TUCSON THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FREEZING
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY IN THE COLDEST VALLEY LOCATIONS. EXPECT A
WARMING TREND WITH DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS SE ARIZONA AT THIS TIME
EXCEPT FOR A FEW CUMULOFORM CLOUDS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. MUCH
DRIER AIR HAS SPREAD SEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS
NW OF A SAFFORD-TUCSON-ORGAN PIPE LINE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
DEWPOINTS VALID 16/04Z WERE STILL AROUND 30 DEGS F ACROSS FAR SERN
SECTIONS...INCLUDING DOUGLAS. WINDS HAD DIMINISHED TO GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 MPH FROM TUCSON WWD ACROSS THE WRN DESERTS. HOWEVER...WINDS
WERE STILL GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH ACROSS ERN SECTIONS.

LOW PRESSURE ALOFT PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL UTAH WILL BE
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THRU THURSDAY. THE
VERY DRY REGIME WILL TRANSLATE INTO CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THE REST OF TONIGHT...AND SUNNY SKIES ON THUR. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE SOME CLOUDINESS MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER...AND
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
WILL BE FRI...WHEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

OTHERWISE...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THUR...WITH HIGH
TEMPS TO AVERAGE NEARLY 10 DEGS F OR SO COOLER VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED
THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH LESS WIND WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS WRN SECTIONS
THUR. HOWEVER...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
ERN SECTIONS FROM LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY EVENING.

FINALLY...HAVE NOTED THAT THE 16/00Z NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS
INDICATE FREEZING TEMPS APPEAR TO BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY EARLY FRI
MORNING FOR KDUG. MEANWHILE...THESE GUIDANCE TEMPS KEEP KSAD JUST
ABOVE FREEZING THUR NIGHT. THUS...EXPECT FREEZING TEMPERATURES LATE
THUR NIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING IN THE COLDEST ERN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 17/06Z.
CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR INTO THURSDAY EVENING EXCEPT FOR A FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
SURFACE WIND UNTIL AROUND 16/09Z WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 10-18 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 25 KTS...THEN SURFACE WIND WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10
KTS. SURFACE WIND FROM LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY EVENING
WILL BE WLY/NWLY AT 12-25 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS. THE STRONGEST
WIND WILL BE EAST OF KTUS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
MARKEDLY LESS WIND WILL OCCUR WEST OF KTUS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...A VERY DRY REGIME WILL PREVAIL INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN THURSDAY MAINLY EAST OF
TUCSON. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR. EXPECT SOMEWHAT
LESS WIND THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MARKEDLY COOLER THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...MUCH COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE FIRST BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
SINCE EARLY MARCH FOR MANY AREAS ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...SOME
VALLEY LOCATIONS OF GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES COULD SEE
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS UNTIL THE UPPER LOW
EVENTUALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND EJECTS EWD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THEREAFTER...WILL GO BACK
TO A DRY REGIME WITH WLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOME OCCASIONAL PASSING
CIRRUS. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TOWARD MORE SEASONABLE VALUES
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CANTIN/FRENCH





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