Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KTWC 012136
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
235 PM MST FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AFTER THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF 2015 SO FAR...THE
WEEKEND WILL SEE A COOLING TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE REMAINS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FOR
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...EXPANDING INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF TUCSON THIS WEEKEND. A PACIFIC
STORM MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST OF THE
AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING
ACROSS SOUTHERN APACHE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. FAR NORTHERN GREENLEE
COUNTY WILL STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME STORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS...WHICH IS OVER THE STATE TODAY...WILL PUSH ON
EAST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE
WILL START TO IMPORT A BIT MORE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH HAVING A
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE INCREASED POPS A
BIT FOR THOSE MOUNTAIN RANGES. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL COOL 3-5
DEGREES EACH DAY.

A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND PUSH
ACROSS THE STATE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS UP IN AREAL POP
COVERAGE. HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/00Z. FEW TO SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AOA
10-12 KFT AGL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING
THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. SCT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...NE OF KSAD.
A CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOUNTAINS
EAST OF KTUS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
DIURNAL AND LESS THAN 10 KTS...WITH NORMAL AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND
15 KTS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WINDS TODAY
WILL BE LIGHT AND DIURNAL WITH NORMAL AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS.
AFTERNOON WINDS WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH IN SOME PLACES. A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE EAST OF TUCSON. TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THE FOCUS WILL BE FOR MOUNTAINS NORTH AND EAST OF
TUCSON...ESPECIALLY THE WHITES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
THEREAFTER WITH INCREASED W TO SW WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE APRIL CLIMATE REPORT FOR TUCSON HAS BEEN POSTED ON
OUR WEBSITE...FACEBOOK AND TWITTER.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.