Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 220409
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
909 PM MST TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A SOUTHWEST BREEZE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY AND
EARLY FRIDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS ON THURSDAY. DRIER WEATHER IS
THEN EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOPS ARE SHOWING JUST SOME
PATCHES OF HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWA EARLY THIS
EVENING. EXPECT WHAT LITTLE CLOUDINESS THERE IS CURRENTLY TO
DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER PUSH OF DRY AIR...SEEN ON CURRENT WV
IMAGERY...PIVOTS ITS WAY INTO THE REGION ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A
CLOSED UPPER-LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. OTHERWISE...WILL MAKE
SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SHORT-TERM GRIDS TO MATCH UP WITH
CURRENT TRENDS.

ONE MORE DAY OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOMORROW BEFORE HIGHS FALL
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS SOME ENERGY DIVES SOUTH
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND FINALLY MOVES THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW/TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SWLY-SELY WINDS 8-12 KTS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AROUND 22/16Z IN
MOST LOCATIONS. SWLY WINDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON 14-18 KTS MOST
LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS PSBL ESP NEAR THE MEXICO BORDER.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO AREAS MAINLY
NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OF TUCSON. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS IT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING EACH DAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN SOME LOCALIZED AREAS IN COCHISE
COUNTY COULD SEE WINDS SPEEDS OF 25-30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
SPOTTY AND BRIEF RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF TUCSON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN COCHISE COUNTY...ALTHOUGH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT COVERAGE AND
DURATION OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. DRY CONDITIONS WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LESS WIND WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...TOMORROW WE WILL START TO EXPERIENCE A COOLING
TREND THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE INITIAL TROUGH WILL
RECEIVE REINFORCED COLD AIR FROM A SYSTEM PUSHING SOUTH OUT OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THE RESULT WILL BE TEMPS ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR
FREEZING CONDITIONS IN THE COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY AND MAYBE
SATURDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE COLD AIR...AND INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY SO A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND MAYBE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

ARIZONA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGE SCALE TROUGHING SO
TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THEN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE SHOULD
RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS THAT THE
ECMWF...AND THE GFS TO SOME EXTENT...SHOWS A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING
UNDER THE RIDGE. WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THAT TRANSPIRES...BUT THIS
WOULD MEAN A BREAK FROM THE WARM TEMPERATURES WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CARLAW
PREV DISCUSSION...BROST
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...FRENCH

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON







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