Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 300419
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
919 PM MST SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK,
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MOST RECENT MODEL DATA
INDICATE THAT RIDGING IS TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE THAT DIRECTION. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW RESIDES WELL WEST
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA.

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO WITH THE CLOUDS
BECOMING THINNER AND LESS NUMEROUS FARTHER TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN.

AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE LOWER 60S TO THE UPPER 70S...WITH A READING AT THE TUCSON INTL
AIRPORT OF 77 DEGS. THE HIGH TEMP THIS AFTERNOON AT TIA WAS 92 DEGS.
THIS WAS A RECORD HIGH FOR THIS DATE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH TEMP
FOR THIS DATE WAS 91 DEGS SET BACK IN 1943. TODAY`S HIGH TEMP FOR
TUCSON WAS ALSO 15 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL. THE CURRENT TEMP READINGS ARE
RIGHT ON TRACK WITH THE INHERITED/ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS...
SO NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPS ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. EXPECT BKN-OVC
CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL THRU 30/12Z...THEN SCT CLOUDS AT 10-15K FT AGL
AND BKN-OVC CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
-SHRA/-TSRA MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF KTUS AFT 30/12Z.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 30/18Z. AFT 30/18Z...
EXPECT SWLY-NWLY SURFACE WIND AT 8-15 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST OF TUCSON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEK. EXPECT LIGHT
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTERNOON BREEZINESS WILL THEN
BE THE RULE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST WIND IS EXPECTED
ON THURSDAY AS A SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS SET ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA AGAIN TODAY...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT RECORDING A HIGH
OF 92 DEGS. THE OLD RECORD WAS 91 SET BACK IN 1943.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AS A WEAK LOW APPROACHES NORTHWEST MEXICO FROM
THE PACIFIC, SOME MODEST MOISTURE INCREASE SHOULD BRING OUR
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO AROUND .5 AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 30S
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. PROBABLY ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY
EAST OF TUCSON BY MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

TROUGHINESS DEVELOPING THROUGH MOST OF THE CONUS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, AS IS OFTEN THE
CASE IN A TRANSITION SEASON, MOST OF THE ENERGY AND COOL AIR WILL BE
SLATED FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WEST. FOR US EXPECT
A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WITH ENOUGH HEIGHT AND THICKNESS FALLS TO DROP
US BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. MORE
NOTABLY, GUSTY WINDS MAY CREATE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN
EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/ZELL






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