Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 150400
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST TUE APR 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF TUCSON ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT. A
STRONGER STORM SYSTEM DIGGING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALONG WITH MUCH
COOLER AIR. UNSEASONABLY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SOME LOCATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED ISOLATED 30-45 DBZ ECHOES OVER
NWRN COCHISE COUNTY VALID 0355Z. THESE ECHOES HAVE WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 30 MINUTES. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED EWD ACROSS FAR SERN PIMA COUNTY EARLIER
THIS EVENING PRODUCED TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH
OF RAINFALL. MEASURABLE RAINFALL OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
OCCURRED FURTHER SOUTH IN EAST CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY NEAR
PATAGONIA. A TRACE OF RAINFALL OCCURRED AT KTUS/KDMA/KOLS/KALK.

15/00Z UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDED
FROM NEAR FLAGSTAFF SWD TO JUST WEST OF TUCSON. THIS FEATURE IN
COMBINATION WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW AT 300 MB...AND A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 2 AT KTWC...CONTRIBUTED
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY DURING THE PAST HOUR INDICATED CLOUD TOPS TO BE WARMING EAST
OF TUCSON. 15/02Z RUC HRRR DEPICTED PRECIP ECHOES TO DISSIPATE BY
15/07Z. THUS...ANY REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD END AROUND MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WRN
SECTIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.

THE FOCUS OF ATTENTION WED THEN TURNS TOWARD A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS FROM LATE WED MORNING INTO EARLY WED
EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY.
THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING
MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 16/06Z.
ISOLATED -SHRA EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS ENDING AROUND 15/06Z. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA/-SHRA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
SKIES TO SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
SURFACE WIND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE MAINLY LESS THAN
10 KTS. SURFACE WIND 15Z-17Z WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING WLY/SWLY AT 12-22 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FOR WEDNESDAY...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL SETTLE
OVER ARIZONA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS STORM WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SPREAD DRIER AIR
ACROSS SE AZ DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A SHARP DROP OFF IN DEW
POINTS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

AS A RESULT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DRYING AIR MASS...A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. FOR FIRE ZONE
150...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF AND SPORADIC ACROSS
MAINLY THE EASTERN PART OF THE ZONE AS WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER
OVERALL. FOR THE EASTERN ZONES...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE WIND WILL BE STRONGER. HOWEVER...
THE AIR MASS IN THIS AREA WILL BE A BIT MORE MOIST AS THE DRY AIR IS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL BE DELAYED.

THE STORM SYSTEM IS A SLOW MOVER AND WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WESTERLY
WIND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW AREAS MAY APPROACH RED FLAG
CRITERIA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH COOLER. FRIDAY WILL STILL BE BREEZY BUT A LITTLE LESS SO. THEN
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MORE TYPICAL
WINDS.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /228 PM MST/...MODELS DEPICT A SYSTEM ENTERING THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA LATE WEDNESDAY...THEN TRACKING VERY SLOWING
EASTWARD THROUGH NEW MEXICO INTO FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIND
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
START TOMORROW AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FOUR CORNERS. A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TOMORROW.
OTHERWISE...A FEW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORM...MAINLY THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS WEEK. THE MAIN STORY AFTER THE WIND WILL BE THE
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS MUCH AS 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MORE IMPORTANTLY...A POSSIBLE LATE SEASON
FREEZE IN COLDEST EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT CAN BE ANTICIPATED. THIS MAY INCLUDE SOME AGRICULTURAL AREAS
OF COCHISE COUNTY SUCH AS SULPHUR SPRINGS VALLEY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR FIRE
     WEATHER ZONES AZZ150-151...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF AZZ152...
     AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF AZZ153.

&&

$$

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