Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KTWC 240440
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
940 PM MST THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY...THEN DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY. THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING
TREND TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ESSENTIALLY ADJACENT THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE EWD INTO SE ARIZONA LATER TONIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL WILL FILL AND MOVE RAPIDLY EWD INTO WEST TEXAS
FRI AFTERNOON. BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AS WELL AS RECEIPT OF
THE 24/00Z NAM/GFS...HAVE LIMITED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THE REST OF
TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ADJACENT
COCHISE COUNTY THE REST OF TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 MPH MOST SECTIONS BY
DAYBREAK FRI. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES FRI MAINLY ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPS FRI WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE ABOUT 5 DEGS F
OR SO COOLER VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 25/06Z. EXPECT SCATTERED -SHRA EAST AND NORTH
OF KTUS THRU FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
THEN OCCUR FRIDAY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WEST OF KTUS INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. FROM KTUS VICINITY EWD...A FEW TO BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 8-
12K FT AGL WILL BE THE RULE. SURFACE WIND DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN
10 KTS MOST SECTIONS BY DAYBREAK. SURFACE WIND FROM LATE MORNING
INTO FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE WLY AT 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
SUNDAY ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECT A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS MONDAY...THEN DRY CONDITIONS WITH
A STRONG WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE SYSTEM IS EXITING TO THE NE FRIDAY SLOWLY
TAKING THE MOISTURE WITH IT. MINIMAL THREAT OF ANY PRECIP OTHER THEN
THE NORTHERN MOST MOUNTAINS. WITH BE A COOL DAY WITH A WESTERLY
BREEZE.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL DIVE DOWN
FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND SETTLE OVER AZ EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE PUSHING
OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A DECENT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AS A POTENTIAL FOR EVEN
COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES THAN FRIDAY IF THE CURRENT MODELED SCENARIO
ACTUALLY PLAYS OUT. HAVE RAISED POPS...INCREASED CLOUDS AND TRIMMED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IF MODELS
CONTINUE ALONG THIS PATH WILL NEED TO ADJUST EVEN FURTHER TOWARD
COOLER AND WETTER.

ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION A DECENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST WITH A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP EXPECTED UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. BY THURSDAY IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD 90S ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ WITH A SHOT AT A FEW 100 DEGREE
READINGS WEST IN THE LOWER DESERTS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CERNIGLIA



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.