Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 292120
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
220 PM MST WED APR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS EACH DAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. THEN A WEAK PACIFIC STORM MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO MOST OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN AROUND AGAIN TODAY BUT
NOT AS STRONG AS TUESDAY. WITH GRADIENT RELAXING OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
LIGHTER AND NORMAL DIURNAL WINDS THU AND FRI. OTHERWISE THE MAIN
SHORT TERM WEATHER NEWS WILL BE THE WARMEST HIGH TEMPERATURES OF
2015 TO DATE OCCURRING THU AND/OR FRI. UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER
THE STATE ON THU AND THEN ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER ON FRI. SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFO. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL RESIDE OVER
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND MOGOLLON RIM FOR A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON STORMS THU THRU SAT.

FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SW OVER THE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF A SOUTHERN
STREAM PACIFIC TROF WHICH WILL SWING THRU THE STATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY ON TUESDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY START TO COOL THIS WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/00Z. CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS
10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT DIMINISHING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OVERNIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY BE LIGHT...WITH A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHEAST WIND AT KTUS AROUND 10 KTS. RELATIVELY
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS THURSDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING MIDDAY TO NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS FOR MOST TERMINALS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE WILL
BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON STARTING ON FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. A WEATHER SYSTEM ON MONDAY WILL RESULT
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS EAST OF
TUCSON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
WEEK HIGHS PEAKING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH TUCSON HAVING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SEEING THE FIRST 95
DEGREE HIGH OF 2015 ON EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. THE HISTORICAL
AVERAGE 1ST 95 DEGREE DATE FOR TUCSON IS MAY 2ND, BUT SINCE 2000 THE
AVERAGE DATE HAS BEEN APRIL 22ND. A FEW SPOTS IN FAR WRN PIMA COUNTY
WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS...ESPECIALLY ORGAN PIPE CACTUS NATIONAL
MONUMENT.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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