Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 010928
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
228 AM MST FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH TODAY GENERALLY BEING THE WARMEST DAY BEFORE SLIGHT COOLING
THIS WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...EXPANDING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF TUCSON
THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK PACIFIC STORM MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO MOST OF
THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CONSISTS OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH AN AXIS NEAR THE
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER. JUST A FEW CIRROFORM CLOUDS NOW STREAMING
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE NEXT BATCH MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA. TUCSON HIT 95 DEGREES
YESTERDAY FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON AND WITH THE HIGH STILL
NEARBY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...IT LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE
TODAY. THERE IS STILL JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS TO JUSTIFY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST THIS WEEKEND WITH
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA GETTING INTO DEEPER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT TO WORK ON MODEST MOISTURE
FOR A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE
EAST OF TUCSON. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW ON THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY
MORE MOISTURE DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VALLEYS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH OFF TO THE EAST LATER TUESDAY WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY DROPPING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
VALUES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/12Z. EXPECT SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTHERWISE...A FEW CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL WILL PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE
WIND WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF
15-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY EAST OF TUCSON...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ELSEWHERE. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TUESDAY NORTHEAST OF TUCSON. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA BY NEXT THURSDAY. GENERALLY LIGHT
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY FOLLOWED OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AFTERNOON WINDS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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