Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 020412
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
912 PM MST FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AFTER THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF 2015 SO FAR...THE
WEEKEND WILL SEE A COOLING TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE REMAINS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF TUCSON
THIS WEEKEND. A PACIFIC STORM MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 02/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS SHOW
HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY STRADDLING THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER.
THERE WAS ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST
CENTRAL ARIZONA...MORE SPECIFICALLY THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND MOGOLLON
RIM AREAS. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC LOOP INDICATES THAT THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAVE GENERALLY DISSIPATED. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FORECAST TO REFLECT ONGOING SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS.

AS OF 04Z (9 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE LOWER 70S TO THE MID 80S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT
REPORTING A TEMP OF 84 DEGS AFTER REACHING AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF 97
DEGS. TODAYS HIGH WAS 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS DATE AND 3
DEGS SHY OF THE RECORD OF 100 DEGS...WHICH WAS SET BACK IN 1943.

FOR INFO REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/06Z. FEW TO SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AOA
10-12 KFT AGL WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. A CHANCE FOR
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOUNTAINS EAST OF KTUS
AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE DIURNAL
AND LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THEN WEST TO
SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS AND PERHAPS
OCCASIONALLY NEAR 25 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE
LIGHT AND DIURNAL WITH AFTERNOON WINDS INCREASING A BIT OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH IN SOME PLACES. A CHANCE
FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING A
GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE EAST OF TUCSON. TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THE FOCUS WILL BE FOR THE MOUNTAINS NORTH AND EAST OF TUCSON...
ESPECIALLY THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
THEREAFTER WITH INCREASED W TO SW WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE APRIL CLIMATE REPORT FOR TUCSON HAS BEEN POSTED ON
OUR WEBSITE...FACEBOOK AND TWITTER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS...WHICH IS OVER THE STATE
TODAY...WILL PUSH ON EAST OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL START TO IMPORT A BIT MORE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM TUCSON
EAST AND SOUTH HAVING A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT FOR THOSE MOUNTAIN RANGES. HIGHS OVER THE
WEEKEND WILL COOL 3-5 DEGREES EACH DAY.

A PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND PUSH
ACROSS THE STATE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
BETTER CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS UP IN AREAL POP
COVERAGE. HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



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