Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 301625
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
925 AM MST THU APR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TODAY AND FRIDAY.  JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.  THEN A WEAK
PACIFIC STORM MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO MOST OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...APRIL 2015 WILL GO OUT ON A VERY WARM NOTE WITH HIGHS
RUNNING 6-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. THE WARMTH IS DUE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE DESERT SW WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER THE STATE TODAY. HIGHS ON
THE FIRST DAY OF MAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE AZ/NM BORDER. ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE RESIDES OVER THE MOGOLLON
RIM AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDER BOOMER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE
MOUNTAINS IN GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTY MAY SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS ON FRIDAY. MORE ON THIS IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION ALONG
WITH THE LATEST ON EARLY NEXT WEEK STORM.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 01/18Z. CLR ACROSS SE AZ WITH SOME CIRRUS
MOVING IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS FOR SCT CLOUDS AND SLIGHT CHANCE -SHRA/-TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS MAINLY EASTERLY AT KTUS AROUND 10 KTS THIS
MORNING AND RELATIVELY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS
THIS MORNING ELSEWHERE. FROM MIDDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...TYPICAL
DIURNAL WIND TRENDS ARE EXPECTED WITH WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO THIS WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TODAY AND FRIDAY EXCEPT FOR THE
HIGHEST PEAKS. THESE VALUES WILL RISE MODESTLY THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON STARTING TODAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.  A
WEATHER SYSTEM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS FROM TUCSON NORTH AND EAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH TUCSON HAVING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SEEING THE FIRST 95
DEGREE HIGH OF 2015 ON EITHER TODAY OR FRIDAY. THE HISTORICAL
AVERAGE 1ST 95 DEGREE DATE FOR TUCSON IS MAY 2ND, BUT SINCE 2000 THE
AVERAGE DATE HAS BEEN APRIL 22ND. A FEW SPOTS IN FAR WRN PIMA COUNTY
WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS...ESPECIALLY ORGAN PIPE CACTUS NATIONAL
MONUMENT.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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