Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 011609
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
910 AM MST FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH TODAY GENERALLY BEING THE WARMEST DAY BEFORE SLIGHT COOLING
THIS WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...EXPANDING INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF TUCSON
THIS WEEKEND. A WEAK PACIFIC STORM MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO MOST OF
THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...500 MB PLOT THIS MORNING PLACED UPPER HIGH OVER EAST
CENTRAL AZ. SATELLITE SHOWED HIGH CLOUDS OVER ERN AND WRN AZ THIS
MORNING WITH CLEAR ELSEWHERE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT
OCCURRED ON THURSDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE RESIDES OVER THE ERN MOGOLLON
RIM AND THE WHITE MTNS FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
SECTION BELOW HAS MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE REMAINING PART OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/15Z. EXPECT SCTD -SHRA/TS ACROSS THE WHITE
MTNS NE OF KSAD THIS AFTN AND EVENG. OTHERWISE...A FEW CLOUDS AT 8-
12K FT AGL AND SCTD TO BKN CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL WILL PREVAIL INTO
SAT AM. SFC WIND WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS EXCEPT FOR OCNL
GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS THIS AFTN. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY EAST OF TUCSON...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ELSEWHERE. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TUESDAY NORTHEAST OF TUCSON. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA BY NEXT THURSDAY. GENERALLY LIGHT
TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY FOLLOWED OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
WEST AND SOUTHWEST AFTERNOON WINDS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST
THIS WEEKEND WITH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA GETTING INTO DEEPER SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT TO WORK
ON MODEST MOISTURE FOR A CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE EAST OF TUCSON. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT NOW ON THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY
MORE MOISTURE DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL
RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VALLEYS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN PUSH OFF TO THE EAST LATER TUESDAY WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY DROPPING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
VALUES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE APRIL CLIMATE REPORT FOR TUCSON WILL BE POSTED ON OUR
WEBSITE...FACEBOOK AND TWITTER BY 12 NOON TODAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON



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