Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 290954
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
251 AM MST WED APR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS EACH DAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.  OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK.  THEN A WEAK PACIFIC STORM MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO MOST OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OTHERWISE...
MODELS SHOW A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE
REGION THIS WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL READINGS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BY THE WEEKEND AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/12Z. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHERE FEW-SCT 08-
10 KFT AGL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERLY SFC WINDS TO
CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING AT 7-12 KTS THEN INCREASING TO 10-20 KTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AFTER 29/12Z BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER 29/21Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN THIS MORNING
MORNING WITH SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS TO TUESDAY. LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON STARTING
ON FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. A WEATHER
SYSTEM ON MONDAY WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS EAST OF TUCSON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK HIGHS PEAKING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST THIS WEEK
WITH TUCSON HAVING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SEEING THE FIRST 95 DEGREE HIGH
OF 2015 ON EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE 1ST 95
DEGREE DATE FOR TUCSON IS MAY 2ND, BUT SINCE 2000 THE AVERAGE DATE
HAS BEEN APRIL 22ND. A FEW SPOTS IN FAR WRN PIMA COUNTY WILL BE NEAR
RECORD HIGHS...ESPECIALLY ORGAN PIPE CACTUS NATIONAL MONUMENT.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON


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