Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 151733
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1033 AM MST WED APR 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM DIGGING TOWARD THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS TODAY AND THURSDAY ALONG
WITH MUCH COOLER AIR. UNSEASONABLY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SOME
LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A FREEZE
POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST VALLEY LOCATIONS OF COCHISE COUNTY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
TODAY WITH INCREASING WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BLOWING DUST. AS OF THIS MORNING THE FRONT
IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY INTO WESTERN PIMA COUNTY AND NORTHERN PINAL
COUNTY. WINDS HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS
IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE IN MANY LOCATIONS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
OBSERVATIONAL CHANGE HAS BEEN DROPS IN DEWPOINT VALUES FROM THE
MID 20S TO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY AIR
INTRUDING BEHIND. THIS...ALONG WITH INCREASED WIND...WILL LEAD TO
MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MUCH OF TODAY. THE WINDS WILL
ALSO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF BLOWING DUST...INCLUDING
ALONG INTERSTATE 10.

MUCH COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED THE FRONT AS WELL. THIS WILL LEAD TO
THE FIRST BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES SINCE EARLY MARCH FOR
MANY AREAS ON THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...SOME HIGH VALLEY AREAS OF
GRAHAM AND COCHISE COUNTIES COULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE TOWARD MORE
SEASONABLE VALUES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 16/18Z.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -TSRA/-SHRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.  OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES OR SCATTERED
CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL INTO TONIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SAG INTO SE AZ TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. SURFACE WIND BETWEEN 15/18Z AND 16/03Z WLY/SWLY AT
18-28 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS BECOMING NWLY. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER ARIZONA WITH
A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SE AZ LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS
STORM WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SPREAD DRIER AIR ACROSS SE AZ DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH A SHARP DROP OFF IN DEW POINTS BY THIS EVENING.

AS A RESULT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND DRYING AIR MASS...A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. FOR FIRE ZONE
150...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF AND SPORADIC ACROSS
MAINLY THE EASTERN PART OF THE ZONE AS WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER
OVERALL. FOR THE EASTERN ZONES...RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE WIND WILL BE STRONGER. HOWEVER...
THE AIR MASS IN THIS AREA WILL HOLD ON TO MOISTURE A LITTLE LONGER
AS THE DRY AIR IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL BE DELAYED.

THE STORM SYSTEM IS A SLOW MOVER AND WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WESTERLY
WIND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW AREAS MAY APPROACH RED FLAG
CRITERIA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MUCH COOLER. FRIDAY WILL STILL BE BREEZY BUT A LITTLE LESS SO. THEN
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MORE TYPICAL
WINDS.


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ150>153.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CANTIN
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...DROZD
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






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