Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 280950
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
250 AM MST TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A QUICK WARMING TREND...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AGAIN TODAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STILL LOOKING AT SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AGAIN TODAY. OTHERWISE...
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL READINGS BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BY THE
WEEKEND AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 29/12Z.  FEW-SCT CLOUDS 10-12K FT
AGL...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF KTUS. JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHC -SHRA ACROSS WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY. ELY
WINDS 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN
INCREASING LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ESP VICINITY KTUS AND KDUG
FROM 28/16Z THRU 28/20Z THEN GRADUALLY EASING TO 7-12 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH
FRIDAY.  GUSTY EAST WINDS NOW DEVELOPING WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-20 MPH EXPECTED AND GUSTS OF 25-
30 MPH. LOCALLY PRONE AREAS TO AN EASTERLY WIND SUCH AS PORTIONS OF
THE TUCSON METRO AREA WILL LIKELY SEE WIND SPEEDS 20-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL TAPER OFF LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL PICK UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SIMILAR WIND
SPEEDS TO TODAY.

LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB EACH DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAKING ABOUT
10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH DEW POINTS
STEADILY DROPPING SEVERAL DEGREES EACH DAY.  MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND WITH A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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