Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 291634
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST WED APR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WARMING TREND...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS EACH DAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.  OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK.  THEN A WEAK PACIFIC STORM MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO MOST OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SUNNY SKY PREVAILED ACROSS SE AZ THIS MORNING. 12Z
UPPER AIR PLOTS PLACED CENTER OF UPPER HIGH OVER NW AZ WHILE A WEAK
TROF WAS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS NRN CHIHUAHUA/SONORA MX. ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE WHITE MTNS FOR PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 30/18Z. MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS SE AZ WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE WHITE MTNS WHERE FEW-SCT 08-10 KFT AGL ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY THIS AFTN. ELY SFC WINDS 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT
UNTIL 29/21Z THEN DIMINISHING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN THIS MORNING
MORNING WITH SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS TO TUESDAY. LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON STARTING
ON FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. A WEATHER
SYSTEM ON MONDAY WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS EAST OF TUCSON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK HIGHS PEAKING ABOUT 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH TUCSON HAVING A GOOD CHANCE FOR SEEING THE FIRST 95
DEGREE HIGH OF 2015 ON EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. THE HISTORICAL
AVERAGE 1ST 95 DEGREE DATE FOR TUCSON IS MAY 2ND, BUT SINCE 2000 THE
AVERAGE DATE HAS BEEN APRIL 22ND. A FEW SPOTS IN FAR WRN PIMA COUNTY
WILL BE NEAR RECORD HIGHS...ESPECIALLY ORGAN PIPE CACTUS NATIONAL
MONUMENT.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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