Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 271619
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
919 AM MST MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A QUICK WARMING TREND STARTING TODAY...WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BY MIDWEEK. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SHOW TO THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY IS NOW OVER THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. IR
AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER WEST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
AND MAKING ITS WAY INTO EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND
THIS IS ALREADY REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST.

AS OF 16Z (9 AM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S FOR DESERT/VALLEY LOCATIONS. THESE
READINGS WERE GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
WILL MAKE CHANGES IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY SEEMS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 28/12Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NE OF KSAD THROUGH 28/12Z. OTHERWISE...SKC-FEW
CLOUDS AOA 12-15 KFT AGL AT MOST LOCATIONS. SFC WIND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS THROUGH 28/03Z. THEREAFTER...ELY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
12-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS EARLY TUES MORNING ESP FOR SERN AREAS
NEAR THE KDUG TERMINAL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A FEW MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TUESDAY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
WITH A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTY EAST WINDS
SHOULD PICK UP EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH AND A FEW GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH DURING THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. LESS WIND AND A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL READINGS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BY THE WEEKEND FOR
A SLIGHT LOWERING IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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