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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 101111
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
610 AM EST WED FEB 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST...PASSING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING SNOW TO MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE REGION TODAY...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL OCCURRING MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF ALBANY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM...BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

...ALL WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN
UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME...

AS OF 4 AM EST...SOME PATCHY LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO AFFECT MAINLY
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.

OUR REGION LIES WITHIN A RELATIVE CALM...WHEREAS AREAS TO THE S ARE
BEGINNING TO EXPERIENCE THE DOWNHILL EFFECTS OF THE INTENSIFYING
LOW...CURRENTLY JUST E OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. STRONG
MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING HAS ALLOWED BANDS OF MOD-HVY
PRECIP TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL PA E INTO NJ AND JUST S OF LONG
ISLAND. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE W...WE EXPECT
THESE BANDS OF PRECIP TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING N...REACHING SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT REGION A FEW HOURS AFTER
DAYBREAK...WITH PERIODS OF MOD-HVY SNOW CONTINUING IN THESE REGIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN THESE REGIONS...WE HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND
OF THE HPC QPF...AND THE RUC13...WHICH IS MUCH FURTHER N AND NW WITH
HIGHER PRECIP AMTS THAN THE GFS/NAM. WE EXPECT THE SNOW TO REACH THE
CAPITAL REGION AROUND MIDDAY...AND AREAS FURTHER N BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON.

AS FAR AS ACCUMS...AGAIN NOTING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE RUC13...WE HAVE
INDICATED 8-16 INCHES ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS...MAINLY FROM
SOUTHERN DUTCHESS CO INTO SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO...WITH GENERALLY
8-12 INCHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNING AREA. FURTHER N...WE
HAVE CONTINUED AMTS OF 3-6 INCHES WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA...WITH
GENERALLY UNDER 3 INCHES FURTHER N.

OF COURSE...THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVED WITH THIS
RAPIDLY EVOLVING STORM SYSTEM...WHICH CAN LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CHANGES
IN AFOREMENTIONED AMTS. FIRST AND FOREMOST...BANDING POTENTIAL
REMAINS QUITE HIGH FOR AREAS S/E OF ALBANY...WHERE STRONGEST MID
LEVEL F-GEN IS EXPECTED. WITHIN THESE BANDS...INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES
OF 2-3 INCHES/HOUR CAN LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. SECOND...TERRAIN EFFECTS FROM A STRENGTHENING NE FLOW WILL
ALSO LIKELY LEAD TO WIDELY VARYING AMTS...WITH SOME UPSLOPE AREAS
WITHIN THE BERKSHIRES...TACONICS AND CATSKILLS LIKELY RECEIVING
HEAVIER SNOWFALL...WHILE DOWNSLOPING/SHADOWED AREAS MAY ONLY RECEIVE
SEVERAL INCHES OR LESS. THIS COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE CAPITAL REGION
AS WELL AS THE INCREASING EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT ENHANCES
DOWNSLOPING. FINALLY...THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY
BE QUITE SHARP...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND ACROSS THE DACKS.

SO...THE BOTTOM LINE...PLEASE STAY TUNED AS FORECASTS WILL LIKELY BE
TWEAKED ACCORDING TO RADAR TRENDS AND INCOMING SNOWFALL REPORTS
THROUGH THE EVENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...SNOW SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE AS THE STORM
PULLS E...AND THE MAIN FORCING SETTLES SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...GUSTY
WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THE CURRENT
WARNING IS IN EFFECT. OTHERWISE...SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS
FAVORABLE...UPSLOPE AREAS WITHIN THE DACKS AND SW VT...BUT LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUM IS EXPECTED. FOR MINS...GENERALLY SIDED WITH A MAV/MET MOS
BLEND. HOWEVER...SHOULD ANY SOUTHERN AREAS EXPERIENCE A DECREASE IN
WIND ALONG WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...MUCH COLDER MINS ARE POSSIBLE.

THU-FRI...EXPECT BLUSTERY CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM
SYSTEM...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PERSISTENT ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...FROM THE
WESTERN DACKS INTO THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS DUE TO
SOME LAKE EFFECTS...AS WELL AS WITHIN UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT
AND THE BERKSHIRES. IN THESE AREAS...MINOR ACCUMS OF A FEW INCHES
COULD OCCUR...ESP ON FRI...WHEN WINDS BACK INTO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH A DEEPER DEPTH OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.
OTHERWISE...FOR MAXES...GENERALLY FOLLOWED A MAV/MET MOS
BLEND...WITH UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO LOWER
20S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOR MINS...EXPECT MAINLY TEENS IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS FOR MANY NORTHERN AREAS...AS WELL AS
ISOLATED SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE WINDS COULD DIMINISH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN EVOLVING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BE OUR
FORECAST DILEMMA HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND.  LATEST TRENDS IN THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THIS
FORECAST PATTERN...BUT THEY DO DIFFER WITH INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES
NEAR THE VICINITY OF LAKE WINNIPEG.

AS OUR CURRENT NOREASTER TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES...IT WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LOW AND BECOME
DOMINANT PLAYER WITH A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME OVER THE
REGION.  AMPLE MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS PATTERN WITH THE CHANCE
FOR MAINLY TERRAIN SNOW SHOWERS...WITH SOME THESE SHOWERS
PROGRESSING INTO THE VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND.  TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

OF MORE INTEREST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT STORM
DEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  PV
TRACE ANOMALY POINTS TOWARD A SHORT WAVE JUST NORTH OF MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN PROVINCE BORDER.  THIS FEATURE IS EVIDENT PER THE H2O
VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING...BUT HOW ITS MAINTAINS ITS STRUCTURE AND
STRENGTH REMAINS TO BE SEEN AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
48.  FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE FOR SNOW AND LEAVE OUT OF THE
HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH ITS NORTHWARD EXTENT INTO KGFL COULD
BE IN JEOPARDY AS DRIER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE.  FOR KGFL...WILL GO AT
LEAST INTO MVFR CATEGORY AND MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY.

FOR KALB-KPOU...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR AS
THE COMBINATION OF FALLING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW EVOLVE THROUGH THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY FOR KPOU.  SPEAKING OF WINDS...WE WILL ADD IN LLWS
FOR KPOU AT THIS TIME SINCE THIS LOCATION WILL BE IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE STORM DEVELOPING RAPIDLY OFF THE NJ COAST.

WITH THIS RAPID INTENSIFICATION...A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW INCREASES
THROUGH THE DAY.  SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 12 TO 20 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS
OVER 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY DURING THE IFR/VLIFR PORTION OF THE EVENT
SOUTH OF KGFL.  THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS AT THE 2000-FOOT LEVEL WILL
ALSO INCREASE...TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR
KALB.

OUTLOOK...
THU-SUN...VFR...NO SIG WX.  SLGT CHC --SN SATURDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED THIS WEEK. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT
OCCURS OVER THE REGION WILL COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW. ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON MAIN STEM RIVERS...STREAMS AND LAKES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ058>061-
     063>066.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ038>040-
     047>054-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...SND

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