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000
FXUS64 KAMA 101129 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
529 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010

.AVIATION...
IFR TO MVFR CIGS LINGERING OVER TAF SITES...MAY BE SOME VIS
RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO 4 OR 5 MILES DUE TO BR THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED BY 16Z OR 17Z WHEN TAF SITES SHOULD
TREND CLOSER TO MVFR...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT IFR CIGS AT
ANY TIME IN THE TAF PERIOD. NEAR SURFACE AIR SHOULD SATURATE LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURS MORNING CREATING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT KDHT
AND KGUY...WITH KAMA SITTING IN A SLIGHTLY BETTER LOCATION AND MAY
ONLY SEE BR IN THE MVFR RANGE. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

JJB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010/

DISCUSSION...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND REMAINING SNOW COVER WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
COLD DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 30S...ABOUT 20
DEG F BELOW CLIMO.  LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST TNGT AS SLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW CONTINUES.

SRN CALIF CLOSED LOW EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO OPEN WAVE NEAR ELP THU
MRNG...WITH MOST OF ITS DYNAMICS PASSING WELL S OF PNHDLS.  HAVE
REDUCED AREA OF POPS ON THU...RESTRICTING EXTENT TO INCLUDE ONLY SRN
PARTS OF TX PNHDL.  BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT -FZRA WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THU MRNG...SO HAVE CHANGED PCPN TYPE FROM SNOW DURING
MRNG.  BY THU AFTN...LIQUID PCPN EXPECTED.  DUE TO EXPECTED WEAK H8
FLOW ON THU...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH PCPN...AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ICE
ACCUMULATION.

SYSTEM DEPARTS THU EVE WITH NO POPS IN REMAINDER OF FCST.  HAVE
UNDERCUT MOS MAXIMA BY 3 TO 6 DEG F TDA THRU FRI...AND HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO MOS TEMPS IN LATER PERIODS.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THESHOLDS.  EXCESSIVE WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/03