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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 100750
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
250 AM EST WED FEB 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
AN INTENSIFYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE DAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE POCONOS AND WESTERN
CATSKILLS...AND NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE SNOW
WILL WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT...LEAVING SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS IN ITS WAKE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WINTER STORM IS UNDERWAY ACRS EAST COAST AS SFC LOW LOCATED JUST
EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IS UNDERGOING INTENSIFICATION. AT THE SAME
TIME WK WV OVR NWPA/WNY IS WEAKENING. H5 LOW IS MAKING ITS WAY ACRS
OH VLY EARLY THIS MRNG WITH ANOTHER SUBTLE WV SEEN IN WV IMAGERY OVR
DELMARVA. FAIRLY INTENSE SNOW/MIXED PCPN PRESENTLY ACRS SRN NJ AND
SE PA WITH MORE WIDESPREAD LGT SNOW WORKING NORTH THRU CNTRL PA.
THIS IS IN ASSOC WITH UL DIFFLUENCE.

ACRS FA INTERMITTENT LGT SNOW IS FALLING. BULK OF MODERATE SNOW IN
AREA OF WK FRONTOGENETICAL FRCG THAT OCCURRED THIS EVNG HAS
WEAKENED...THO ANOTHER INCRS IN PCPN OCCURRING ACRS SRN SXNS. 00Z
MODELS HAD GOOD HANDLE ON BREAK IN PCPN FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
OVRNGT HRS. MORE SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE CWA AFT DAYBREAK IN ASSOC
WITH UL WAVE MVG THRU MID-ATLANTIC.

LOPRES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL MV NORTH THIS MRNG AND DEEPEN
RAPIDLY AS IT DOES SO. GREATEST PRESSURE FALLS ARE CURRENTLY NORTH
OF THE LOW CENTER UP TOWARD THE VIRGINIA CAPES INTO NRN NJ. 00Z NAM
INDICATES SFC LOW WILL HEAD NORTH THIS MRNG...THEN PINWHEEL BACK TWD
JERSEY SHORE BY AFTN. H5 LOW WL MORE OR LESS JUMP TO THE COAST
MID-LATE MRNG...TRANSFERRING ITS ENERGY AND ALLOW SFC LOW TO DEEPEN
RAPIDLY DRG THE AFTN.

MODELS ARE PRETTY MUCH ALL ON THE SAME PAGE WITH REGARD TO EVOLN OF
SFC/UL FEATURES THRU THE DAY. MOST OF THE DISAGREEMENT CENTERS
AROUND THE LOCATION OF QPF...HEAVIEST FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND
THEREFORE THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND POSSIBLE DEFORMATION DVLPNG TODAY.

LATEST GUIDANCE FM THE RUC WUD INDICATE BTWN 14Z-15Z FRONTOGENESIS
DVLPS OVR SERN SXNS. LIKEWISE THE NAM ALSO HINTS AT POSSIBILITY BY
15Z OVR EXTREME SERN ZONES. IN CONTRAST...GFS KEEPS THIS DVLPMNT
CONFINED CLOSER TO LOW CENTER MAINLY FM NRN NJ THROUGH LONG ISLAND.
EVOLN OF THIS BAND WILL BE WHAT MAKES OR BREAKS HEADLINES CURRENTLY
IN PLACE.

FEELING PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS WILL BE MET
ACRS THE POCONOS AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CATSKILLS (I.E. SULLIVAN
COUNTY) DRG THE PD. EXPECT HEAVY SNOW WILL DVLP BTWN 15Z-18Z AND
CONTINUE THRU THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...MAINLY FROM ABOUT A
MONTICELLO TO WILKES-BARRE LINE GIVE OR TAKE HALF A COUNTY OR SO.
GIVEN THE SNOW GROWTH...TREMENDOUS LIFT AND POTENTIAL
FRONTOGENESIS...CURRENT FCST OF 8-12 WITH LOCALLY 15 INCHES STILL
LOOKS RIGHT ON TARGET. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL FALL IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF LUZERNE/LACKAWANNA/WAYNE AND PIKE.

FURTHER NORTH IS A BIT MORE PROBLEMATIC. THIS IS ENTIRELY DEPENDENT
ON ANY DEFORMATION BAND FORMATION OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. IF
COASTAL LOW TRACKS JUST A TAD FURTHER WEST...WARNING CRITERIA WL
LKLY BE MET FURTHER TO THE NORTH ACRS THE TWIN TIERS AND WESTERN
CATSKILLS.

THEREFORE WL LV ALL HEADLINES AS IS BUT WL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
PROGRESS OF COASTAL LOW. COULD FEASIBLY SEE DOWNGRADE TO NORTHERN
TIER OF CNTYS FM WARNING TO ADVISORY BUT DO NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE
DROPPING AT THIS TIME. WANT TO GIVE COASTAL CHC TO DVLP BFR MAKING
ANY HEADLINE DECISIONS.

WINDS WL INCRS DRG THE AFTN WITH DEEPENING LOPRES OVR THE ATLANTIC.
EXPECT 20-30MPH SUSTAINED WINDS OVR THE POCONOS WITH OCNL GUSTS TO
NR 35 MPH. SNOW/BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE BY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACRS INTERSTATES TRAVERSING SRN SXNS OF AREA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
STORM SYSTEM DEPARTS BY MIDNIGHT. HV CONT/D LKLY-CAT POPS OVR ERN
HALF OF CWA THRU 06Z AND WILL LET WSW RIDE THRU THIS TIME. SFC LOW
WL HEAD EAST QUICKLY AFTER THIS TIME...LVG NW FLOW IN ITS WK.

NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR BHND THE STORM WITH H8 TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO
DROP ANY LOWER THAN ABOUT -9 OR -10C THRU 00Z FRIDAY. LK EFFECT WL
BE FAIRLY MINIMAL WITH ONLY CHC POPS EXPECTED IN 300-320 DEGREE FLOW
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. NICKEL AND DIME ACCUMS EXPECTED THRU THE
DAY THURSDAY...PERHAPS ADDING UP TO AN INCH OR SO BY THUR AFTN OVR
PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS A TAD BLO NORMAL ON THURSDAY BUT STILL
IN THE M20S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST, BUT
IT WILL EXTEND A WEAK TROF BACK THROUGH NY STATE. A LIGHT NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PERSIST. 300-310 FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL GENERATE A
BROAD AREA OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS, THROUGH THE EASTERN FINGER
LAKES AND ONONDAGA COUNTY AND INTO THE TWIN TIERS. LAPSE RATES WILL
BE LOW (1-2C 950-800H), BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE DEPTH (120 MB)
POINTS TO A BROAD BAND. EXPECT A GENERAL INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION
ACROSS A WIDE AREA DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FLOW PATTERN THIS
24 HOUR PERIOD. LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE, THOUGH THE ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AS AN INVERSION BUILDS DOWN FROM ALOFT AND LESSENS THE
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. RMS SHEAR IS A BIT MORE OPTIMAL, SO WE ARE
CONFIDENT IN KEEPING WITH SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS AND LOW ACCUMS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LITTLE TO CHANGE FROM THE EXTENDED
FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY. THE AREA REMAINS IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH LAKE SNOWS POSSIBLE AS THE FLOW VARIES FROM
290 TO 320. LAKE DELTA T`S ARE VERY MARGINAL SO AT THIS POINT ONLY
NUISANCE SNOWS...WITH SMALL AMOUNTS OF SNOW EACH DAY ARE EXPECTED.
AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY WE DON`T HAVE ANY HUGE PUSHES OF WARM OR
COLD AIR DURING THE PERIOD SO HIGHS EACH DAY WON`T VARY
MUCH...WITH TEMPS NEAR 30.

NEXT SHOT AT SYNOPTIC SNOWS COME MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BOTH THE EURO
AND GFS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE 500 MB LOW...BUT
STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR THIS TO CHANGE SO CHANCE POPS ARE FINE FOR
NOW. LAKE SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS WE REMAIN IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE UPPER LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK IS ENHANCING
SNOW ACTIVITY FROM THE SYR TERMINAL DOWN TOWARD ITH. THIS WILL
KEEP MVFR TO BORDERLINE IFR CONDITIONS OVER THESE TERMINALS FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE CLEARS THE REGION. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST.

A STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW WILL SPREAD SNOW BACK TOWARD THE TWIN
TIERS REGION LATER THIS MORNING. STEADY SNOW WILL DEVELOP FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z, BRINGING MVFR RESTRICTIONS
BACK TO THE TERMINALS. THE SNOW COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES LATER
THIS MORNING, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE AVP TERMINAL WHERE
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 MILE OR LESS FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 300 AND 800 FEET.
AN ELONGATED PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS ALSO FORECAST AT BGM AND ITH.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 22Z AND 03Z.

OUTLOOK...

THUR THRU SUN...VFR WITH MVFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR
NYS TERMINALS.
MON...MVFR/IFR IN SNOW.
TUE...MVR/IFR IN SNOW.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ045-046-
     055>057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PVN
NEAR TERM...PVN
SHORT TERM...PVN
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP