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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

000
FXUS65 KBOU 092102
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
215 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2010

.SHORT TERM...TWO ISSUES TONIGHT. ONE IS THE EXTENT OF THE MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER CREEPING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MOST OF THIS APPEARS TO
BE AT OR BELOW MOUNTAINTOP LEVEL...SO EXPECT SOME CLOUDS WORKING
INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE PARK RANGE BUT NOT MUCH FURTHER
EAST. REALLY NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF CHANGE DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE SOME HIGHER CLOUDS UPSTREAM BUT NOT MUCH.
TRIMMED BACK THE MINIMAL MOUNTAIN POPS TO THE AFTERNOON AND THAT MAY
STILL BE TOO MUCH. THE OTHER ISSUE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG/STRATUS
ON THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE BRINGING SOME MOISTURE RETURN
TONIGHT...BUT THEY WILL GET A WESTERLY COMPONENT LATER TONIGHT THAT
SHOULD DEFLECT THE DEVELOPING STRATUS FIELD EASTWARD. PRETTY GOOD
BET OF EITHER FOG OR STRATUS ALONG THE EASTERN FRINGE OF OUR AREA
FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS DURING THE EARLY MORNING. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH WAS A LITTLE
COOLER THAN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST TONIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR
DIFFERENCES ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...A WEAK TO MODERATE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER NRN CO AS ONE SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO TEXAS.  ENUF MSTR AND
OROGRAPHICS WILL BE PRESENT TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY...BUT THE PLAINS WL REMAIN DRY.  THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WITH AN
INCREASING NWLY FLOW ALFT OVER CO.  MSTR WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH
THE RIDGE AND START FILTERING BACK INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
COLORADO.  AS IT DOES...THE CHANCE OF SNOW WILL RETURN TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY.  A SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE
MIDWEST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AN 80+ KT JET DROPS INTO THE
NRN GREAT PLAINS AND COULD CLIP NERN CO SATURDAY NIGHT.  MOST OF THE
MDLS TO SHOW SOME MINOR QPF AMOUNTS SATURDAY NIGHT SO WL ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE NERN PLAINS AT THAT TIME.  IF THESE
FEATURES SHIFT FURTHER TO THE WEST...THEN THE CHC OF SNOW MAY
INCREASE AS WELL OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND NORTHEASTERN PLAINS.
THE DGEX IS FURTHEST WEST AND GENERATES 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH OF DENVER.  FOR NOW WL BOOKMARK THIS TIME PERIOD WITH
SLGT CHC AND SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP.  THERE COULD BE SOME CARRYOVER
FOR PCPN LEADING INTO SUNDAY BUT WL CONFINE THE MENTION OF SNOW HIGH
COUNTRY FOR NOW.  MORE RIDGING AND DRYING FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK.  WL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW...BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER
WEAK SYSTEM SLIDING ACROSS CO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME WHICH
COULD AGAIN BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE CWFA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

GIMMESTAD/COOPER