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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBTV 101209
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
709 AM EST WED FEB 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY...THEN
MOVE FURTHER OUT TO SEA TONIGHT. THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY...WITH SEVERAL
INCHES POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS...BUT LITTLE IF ANY NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THEREAFTER...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BRINGING CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 409 AM EST WEDNESDAY...PRIMARY SFC LOW OVER NW PENNSYLVANIA
EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING JUST OFF
DELMARVA COAST. INITIAL AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCD WITH PRIMARY LOW IS
LIFTING NORTH THRU WRN NYS...BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
FORECAST AREA...JUST CHC OF SOME LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY ACRS ADRNDKS
AND SC VT THRU MID MORNING. STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW APRCHG FROM THE
MIDWEST WILL ALLOW FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE COASTAL LOW
TODAY. MODELS REMAIN QUITE CONSISTENT IN PROJECTING THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW TO THE EAST...PASSING SOUTH OF THE BENCHMARK THIS
EVENING. STILL EXPECTING THE MAJOR IMPACT OF THIS STORM TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY...ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATING SNOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH NORTH INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VERMONT AND PORTIONS
OF THE ADRNDKS. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE HIR GFS POPS...AND GONE
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/HPC QPF. THIS RESULTS IN LITTLE
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING REGARDING SNOW AMOUNTS...WITH 2-4
INCHES EXPECTED OVER RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTIES...A DUSTING TO 2
INCHES OVER THE ADRNDKS AND CENTRAL VT/SRN CHMPLN VLY...AND LITTLE
IF ANY OVER ZONES NEAR INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SOME LOCALIZED 5 INCH
TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE ALG ERN SLOPES OF SRN GREENS DUE EASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW. MAX TEMPS TODAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
TO THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 409 AM EST WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANY LIGHT SNOW ESPECTED TO END
THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. THERE
WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THE DEPARTING
LOW WILL ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
MOISTURE WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...ALONG WITH A
SERIES OF SHRTWVS DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A
LOT OF CLOUDS AND A CHC OF SNOW SHWRS...ESPECIALLY OVER NRN AREAS.
SOME ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAVORABLE N-NW UPSLOPE
FAVORED PORTIONS OF NRN VT/NY. NO EXTREMES IN TEMPS...EXPECT MAX
TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS...AND MINS ABOVE NORMAL DUE CLOUDS
AND A PERSISTENT NW BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 324 AM EST WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS HAS CONTINUED TO STAY CONSISTENT
IN REGARDS TO BROAD LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES/
EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL HAVE SETUP FOR NNW WIND FLOW OVER THE
ENTIRE CWA FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EMPHASIS ON
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO REMAIN OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA...WITH FOCUS SHIFTING FROM ZONES TO HIR ELEV AREAS DUE TO
SHIFT IN WINDS FROM N TO MORE NW. THIS WILL ALLOW UPSLOPE EFFECTS
TO CONCENTRATE HIR QPF TOTALS FOR POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL. SUN NGT INTO TUES...SLIGHT SHIFT IN WX PATTERN AS WINDS
SLACKEN OVER THE REGION WITH APPROACH OF LOW MVG THRU THE OHIO
VALLEY. WK RIDGING DEVLEOPS BRIEFLY AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES ENE INTO
THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR. SOME MDL DISCREPANCIES ON TRACK ATTM...BUT
DO EXPECT CLD COVER TO REMAIN OVER AREA DESPITE RIDGING...AND WILL
SHOW INCR POPS FOR LGT SNOW OVER AREA AS OHIO VALLEY LOW SPINS
THRU THE AREA AND OUT TO SEA BY TUESDAY NGT. CWA RETURNS TO WK NNW
FLOW BEHIND THIS...SO WILL KEEP SL CHANCE FOR --SW. EXTENSIVE CLD
COVER THRU FORECAST WILL KEEP TMEPS IN CHECK SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO
MDL GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...REGION WILL SEE A MIX OF CONDITIONS THRU
FORECAST PERIOD AS WINTER STORM PUSHES EAST THRU THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. FORECAST SITES WILL SEE A VFR SHIFT DOWN TO IFR CEILINGS
AND VSBY IN ANY DEVELOPING SNOW SHOWERS DROPPING DOWN TO 2-6SM AT
TIMES. THE LWR VALUES WILL BE CONCENTRATED NEAR RUT/MPV AS THEY
ARE CLOSEST TO APPROACHING STORM. THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST
WILL SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS/VSBY FROM W TO E AS STORM
SYSTEM MVS AWAY FROM THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL VARY FROM SSE TO
THE N FROM 5 TO 15KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR IN
-SHSN ESPECIALLY AT MPV/SLK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...AMF/JN