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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KCAE 100811
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
311 AM EST WED FEB 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
AN INTENSIFYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE DELMARVA TODAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WILL PRODUCE WINDY
CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE GULF
COAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWS SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY
FOR THIS MORNING WITH WIND ADVISORY FROM LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS DIFFER A
BIT...BUT WITH GOOD CAA WILL LEAN TOWARD COOLER MET NUMBERS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE DELMARVA WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT...BUT MAY REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH FOR A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THINGS AS IS TO KEEP THINGS FROM
GETTING TOO CONFUSING. ON THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. S/W MOVING
INTO SRN CA TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY THU AND THEN TO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY FRI. TIME SECTIONS
SHOW RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL
NUMBERS VERY CLOSE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL STAY NEAR
CONSENSUS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CA COAST WILL OPEN AND SHIFT ESE
MOVING INTO THE GULF COAST BY FRI NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A
DIFFICULT TIME IN TRYING TO COME TO A CONSENSUS ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. GFS CONTINUES WITH PREVIOUS RUNS BY KEEPING
THE SYSTEM MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS
SRN FLORIDA. LATEST NAM KEEPS SYSTEM FARTHER NWD WITH LOW TRACKING
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. IT IS ALSO SLOWER WITH SPEED OF SYSTEM AND
THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN TO THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. LATEST ECMWF A SIMILAR
TRACK TO NAM...BUT TIMING IS FASTER. LATEST GEM IS THE FARTHEST N
WITH SYSTEM AS IT MOVES IT ACROSS THE NRN GULF COAST...NRN FL AND
THEN OFF THE SE COAST. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK/TIMING OF THE SYSTEM FOR FRI/SAT...WILL CONTINUE WITH
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE/CHC PCPN. THICKNESS VALUES/MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PCPN FALLING OVERNIGHT FRI WOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AND LATER MODEL
RUNS FOR ANY CHANGES TO TRACK AND IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A STRONG S/WW WILL MOVE FROM
CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND REINFORCE THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION 00Z-04Z TIME FRAME EARLY
IN THE PERIOD. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES EAST...
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS AND WINDS INCREASE TO WEST
10-20 KNOTS 00Z-10Z THEN INCREASE TO WEST 20-30 KNOTS AND GUSTY
FOR WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE BUT WIND
SHEAR NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT FACTOR...JUST SPEED SHEAR BUT
SHEAR MAGNITUDE 20 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WINDS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ALSO POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR SOUTH.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WIND SPEED ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES NEAR OR BELOW 25 PERCENT EXPECTED WED AFTN...THE
METEOROLOGICAL CRITERIA FOR A RED FLAG WARNING OR FIRE WEATHER
WATCH COULD BE MET. HOWEVER...FUEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE HIGH DUE TO
RECENT RAINS. DAY SHIFT COORDINATED WITH FEDERAL AND STATE FIRE
WEATHER OFFICIALS...AND THEY CONFIRMED FUEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE
VERY HIGH AND A RED FLAG WARNING OR FIRE WEATHER IS NOT NEEDED.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-
     018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041.
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GAZ040-
     063>065-077.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...07
FIRE WEATHER...