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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KCLE 101110
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
610 AM EST WED FEB 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO LAKE ERIE THIS
EVENING AS A COASTAL STORM DEVELOPS OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THE
COASTAL STORM WILL STRENGTHENING ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW OVER LAKE
ERIE WEAKENS. THE STORM WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST INTO
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL NOT BE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES EARLY THIS
MORNING...CONTINUING THE WARNING OVER WESTERN OHIO AND THE
ADVISORY OVER EASTERN AREAS. OVER WESTERN AREAS NOT EXPECTING MUCH
SNOWFALL TODAY...MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO. HOWEVER THE COMBINATION OF
THE SNOW YESTERDAY AND THE STRONGER WINDS EXPECTED OVER THIS AREA
 WILL CAUSE MORE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. SNOWFALL OVER EASTERN
AREAS ALSO IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EXTREME
NE OHIO AND NW PENNSYLVANIA WHERE 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE HELP OF SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ALREADY GETTING SOME
GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 30KT IN THE SW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW. WE SHOULD SEE SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE GUSTS EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT THEN PICKING BACK UP AGAIN AS THE WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY BUT STILL SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE...EVEN AFFECTING WESTERN AREAS OF
LMIC...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE NE INTO THURSDAY. DO
NOT BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE LAKE EFFECT AS 8H TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING SOMEWHAT...MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED AND FAIRLY STRONG
AND INVERSION NEAR 8H. LERI IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED BUT 8H FLOW
EXTENDS BACK ACROSS LHUR WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME MOISTURE. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THERE STILL COULD
BE LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A DECENT TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST
FLOW OF AIR. A SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
TROUGH AND BRING MORE SNOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND WILL
START TO EXIT OUR FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS
PROBABLY FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER EXTREME EASTERN LAKE ERIE WILL BECOME
PART OF LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY. A NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING RESULTING IN PERIODS OF SNOW
SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW.  WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. CONDS MOSTLY
MFR WITH SOME IFR CONDS TODAY. THE WINDS WILL START DECREASING
LATER TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDS TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST NE OH/NW PA THURSDAY. PATCHY LIGHT SNOW MAY
DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH SOME NON VFR CONDITIONS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER NORTHEAST OF OHIO AND A MAJOR
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
BRING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY. SOME
WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR
THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS BY FRIDAY AS
THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKENS. A NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL
LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO A LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     OHZ010>014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ003-
     006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RANDEL
NEAR TERM...RANDEL
SHORT TERM...RANDEL
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC