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000
FXUS63 KDDC 100948
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
338 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HOW FAST CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER OUR
EASTERN CWA AND IF AND WHERE ANY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY FORM.

THE LATEST RUNS OF THE NAM, GFS AND EC MODELS POINT TOWARD A CLOUDY
DAY WITH LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.   THEREFORE, DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB VERY FAST OR VERY FAR.  KNOCKED MAX TEMPS
DOWN A TAD TODAY OVER THE SNOW COVERED AREAS FROM GREENSBURG TO
DODGE, THINKING THE 2 TO 4 SNOW DEPTH WILL INHIBIT HEATING.
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS THE LOWER LAYERS SATURATE AND
WE STAY WITHIN THE RIGHT REAR EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET.

THEN TONIGHT, THE CLOUDS WILL STAY WITH US AND DO NOT EXPECT A LOT
OF DIURNAL COOLING DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS.  MIN TEMPERATURE WILL ONLY
LOWER TO THE UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTH AND EAST, AND THE LOWER 20S
WEST.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.  ON
THURSDAY, AGAIN EXPECT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING.  THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUDS AND A LITTLE
WARM UP.  GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWER 40S ACROSS OUR SOUTH, BUT WILL TAPER
JUST A LITTLE LOWER DUE TO SOME CONTINUED SNOW COVER.  STILL, MID
30S NORTH AND NEAR 40 SOUTH WILL BE WELCOME AFTER THE RECENT DAYS
BELOW FREEZING.

DAYS 3-7...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH AND BRING A SHOT OF COLDER AIR
(BUT NOT FRIGID) INTO WESTERN KS BY SATURDAY. THIS COLD AIR IS
PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO LINGER INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.

THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER FEB 16TH, WITH THE ECMWF RETROGRADING THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH BACK OVER THE PLAINS, WHICH WOULD BE A COLDER BUT
STILL FAIRLY DRY PATTERN. THE CANADIAN AND GFS HINT AT THIS TOO,
BUT ARE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST WITH THE MEAN TROUGH. EITHER OF THESE
SOLUTIONS WOULD PREVENT A PROLONGED WARMUP FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TEMPS FROM FEB 16 TO FEB 20 SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES WITH BELOW AVERAGE PRECIP.
&&

.AVIATION...
MOIST RETURN FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH HAS RESULTED IN
2500-3500 FT CIGS THIS MORNING AT GCK/DDC. THE MODELS ADVERTISE A
GRADUAL LOWERING OF THE CLOUD DECK TO IFR AT GCK/DDC BY 21Z AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 03. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW AN
INVERSION AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT, AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  27  18  34  23 /   0   0   0   0
GCK  27  20  39  23 /   0   0   0   0
EHA  31  22  42  23 /   0   0   0   0
LBL  30  21  40  24 /   0   0   0   0
HYS  29  19  35  22 /   0   0   0   0
P28  30  18  35  24 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

FN12/24/24