National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KFGF 100316 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
916 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TEMPERATURES. WHEN LOOKING AT THE
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR
DVL WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH E SD. THE MODELS REMAIN IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO USED A MODEL BLEND AND
PERSISTENCE FOR THE FORECAST UPDATE.

WHEN LOOKING AT THE LATEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES...THEY HAVE FALLEN
FASTER THAN FORECAST. THEREFORE...WILL NEED TO MAKE SOME DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS...ESPECIALLY IN E ND WHICH IS DIRECTLY UNDER THE CENTER
OF THE HIGH. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE...WITH MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR SKY AND VSBY EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR VSBYS IN FOG FROM 10 TO 15Z. WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND TURN LIGHT SE AFTER 15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 210 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010/

SHORT TERM...
PRETTY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST WITH THE
MAIN CHALLENGES BEING CLOUDS AND TEMPS...THEN THROW IN SOME
MINIMAL PCPN CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST AS WELL.
MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT BUT DIFFER SOME ON THE LIGHT PCPN
CHANCES STARTING LATER THU...SO WILL USE A BLEND.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGE AXIS STILL HOLDING OVER NE ND WHERE THERE HAVE
BEEN SOME SCT LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG. AS OF MID AFTERNOON...MOST OF
THIS HAD BURNED OFF. NOT SURE ABOUT ANY REFORMATION OF THIS FOG
LATER TONIGHT...SO WILL PASS THIS POTENTIAL ON TO THE NEXT SHIFT.
SFC RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO SET UP FROM KBDE TO KFFM BY 12Z WED AND
WILL GO WITH COOLEST LOWS TONIGHT IN THIS AREA. FOR OTHER AREAS
HAVE STAYED ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. LOOKS LIKE SOME LIGHT
S RETURN FLOW COULD GET GOING IN THE W LATE BUT DOUBT IT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING OFF TOO FAR. IF SOME FOG AND
LOWER CLOUDS DO REFORM THEY COULD PLAY HAVOC WITH THIS THINKING.

WED-FRI...SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT OF SUN AROUND AGAIN ON WED WITH
RETURN FLOW MORE ESTABLISHED W OF THE RED RIVER. WILL STAY COOLER
THAN GUIDANCE FOR WED HIGHS RIGHT ALONG THE RED RIVER UP TOWARD
LANGDON WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER/S WINDS. SHOULD BE INCREASING
CLOUDS WED NIGHT THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. SOME BETTER
WARM ADVECTION BEGINS TO SPREAD INTO THE FA THU AND THU NIGHT
WHICH COULD RESULT IN A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW. MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING SOME VERY LIGHT QPF FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW SO WILL ADD IT
IN. NOTHING MUCH AND IT COULD ACTUALLY BE MORE FLURRIES THAN
ANYTHING. MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING SOME DECREASING CLOUDS TRYING TO
WORK INTO THE W FA THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER
LOW STARTS TO MOVE TOWARD THE N FA IN THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

LONG TERM [SAT-TUE]...
THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD ARE DAILY
TEMPERATURES AND PCPN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DROP OUT OF MANITOBA AND INTO THE N PLAINS FRI NIGHT AND SAT. THE
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT...WITH THE ECMWF A TAD FASTER WITH
THIS SYSTEM. LEANED ON A BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD DROP OUT OF MANITOBA INTO CENTRAL OR
E ND FR NIGHT AND SAT...PROVIDING SOME FORCING FOR PCPN CHANCES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE N PLAINS SAT NIGHT...KEEPING
THE REGION DRY THROUGH MON.

THIS WEEK SHOULD END WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME
MODERATION SEEMS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
NG