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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 100426
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 PM MST TUE FEB 09 2010

.SYNOPSIS...THE CENTER OF A PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST
MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THIS STORM WILL BRUSH
THE NORTHLAND. AS A RESULT...ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM
THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN SHOWERS. FURTHER NORTH...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. STARTING
THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES WITH WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS LASTING
THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE CENTER OF A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WAS SPINNING JUST
OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS...HEADING
SOUTHWARD. OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36-HOURS THE STORM CENTER WILL TRACK
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND THEN HEAD EASTWARD
ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST MEXICO. BY SUNRISE THURSDAY THE
STORM WILL BE ACCELERATING EASTWARD AND WEAKENING. THE PROJECTED
STORM TRACK SUGGESTS THAT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NORTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM WILL BE QUITE LOW. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM
THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS BUT POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS/SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL
HOVER AROUND 5000 FEET WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY OF 1 INCH
OR LESS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHERE A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE.

FOR THURSDAY AND HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN SHIFT APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE WITH A LONGWAVE RIDGE
FORMING OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND THE MAIN JET STREAM HEADING TO
THE NORTH. THERE WILL STILL BE A THREAT OF A WEAK STORM OR TWO
DIVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA...BUT CURRENT MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
NORTHEAST OF A KINW-KGCN LINE THROUGH 10Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 14Z AS A
LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES ACROSS SONORA. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. ONLY ISOLD
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE RIM. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
IN THE SHOWERS WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 4-5 KFT. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.............MCCOLLUM
AVIATION...........MAS

VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER
INFORMATION.