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000
FXUS64 KFWD 100951
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
351 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL TROFS PERSISTS
ACROSS TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN IS
CURRENTLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST DOWN THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX TO NORTH TEXAS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AMPLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
SPREADING OVER NORTH TEXAS AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM PROVIDING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
TODAY KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AGAIN.

LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING NORTHEAST TONIGHT FROM
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON
THURSDAY AND WITH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR...HAVE
INCREASED POPS TO 90-100 PERCENT DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THERMAL PROFILES AND THICKNESS VALUES INDICATE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
HOVER JUST ABOVE FREEZING ON THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR IN THE SOUTHEAST
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S. HAVE UNDERCUT MOS
TEMPERATURE VALUES ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE RAIN AND THICK CLOUD
COVER...RESULTING IN A DIURNAL TREND ON AVERAGE OF ONLY 4-5
DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE THERMAL PROFILE FROM
ABOUT 950-750 MB WILL BE HUGGING THE 0 DEGREE CELSIUS LINE /WHILE
THE SURFACE REMAINS ABOVE FREEZING/. THIS LAYER OF AIR IS COLD AND
MOIST ENOUGH FOR SNOW PRODUCTION BUT IF IT CAN COOL A FEW MORE
DEGREES...THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SNOW OR ALL SNOW WOULD INCREASE.
ON THE OTHER HAND...IF THAT THERMAL LAYER WARMS A FEW
DEGREES...ALL RAIN WOULD LIKELY BE FAVORED. BUT FOR NOW...A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW LOOKS SUFFICIENT WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A
HALF INCH TO 1 INCH NORTH OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE TO HILLSBORO TO
ATHENS...AND LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THIS LINE. GIVEN THE FORECASTED
CONDITIONS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE SNOW WILL MOST LIKELY BE A WET
SNOW KEEPING ACCUMULATIONS WELL BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER...
A SHIFT IN THE THERMAL PROFILE TO THE COLDER SIDE COULD RESULT IN
HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS.

THE CURRENT FORECASTED SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE INCH OR LESS
/ESPECIALLY COMBINED WITH RAIN/ DO NOT WARRANT ANY WINTER WEATHER
PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME BUT THE TYPICAL WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS CAN
STILL BE EXPECTED. OF CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ICY ROADS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. LIQUID QPF AMOUNTS DURING THE
EVENT ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 1 INCH WITH THE HIGHEST
LIQUID ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. WITH THE RAIN/SNOW
MIX STILL MOVING OUT OF THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW
FREEZING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...ANY REMAINING WATER
WILL LIKELY FREEZE ON ROADWAYS RESULTING IN TRAVEL IMPACTS AND A
MESSY MORNING COMMUTE.

NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN WITH IT. NO WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT
AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER...HAVE
UNDERCUT MOS VALUES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...THE MODELS DIVERGE ON A SOLUTION OF WHEN
SOUTHERLY WINDS...MOISTURE...AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
AND THUS HAVE COMBINED THE MODELS FOR NOW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
BEYOND THE WEEKEND IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

82/JLD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  44  33  37  30  49 /   5  40 100  80  10
WACO, TX              47  33  37  31  50 /  10  70 100  90  10
PARIS, TX             40  31  34  28  43 /   5  30  90  80  10
DENTON, TX            43  32  36  27  47 /   5  30 100  80  10
MCKINNEY, TX          43  32  36  29  47 /   5  30 100  80  10
DALLAS, TX            44  33  37  31  49 /   5  40 100  80  10
TERRELL, TX           45  32  36  31  48 /   5  40 100  80  10
CORSICANA, TX         45  32  37  32  50 /  10  60 100  90  10
TEMPLE, TX            46  34  38  31  51 /  10  70 100  90  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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