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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KGYX 100740
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
240 AM EST WED FEB 10 2010


.SYNOPSIS...
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LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST BEHIND
THE STORM ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS IT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE WEST ON
SATURDAY AND WILL MEANDER AROUND THE MARITIMES SUNDAY... BEFORE
DRIFTING INTO EASTERN QUEBEC ON MONDAY. A SECOND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER VIRGINIA ON MONDAY AND WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST PASSING SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE ON TUESDAY.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
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LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY WILL BRING SOME WET
SNOW TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL QPF WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE.
EVEN IF THE WETTER GFS VERIFIES NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH MORE THAN 1
TO 3 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE...WITH POSSIBLY 2 TO 4
INCHES RIGHT ALONG THE MA/NH BORDER. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE
DROPPED WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WILL
NOT BE ISSUING ADVISORIES. SHOULD BE A RATHER SHARP CUTOFF OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF THIS AREA WITH ONLY A DUSTING TO AN
INCH IN CENTRAL MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. LOOKING FOR LITTLE IF ANY
SNOW IN THE NORTH COUNTRY. NOT LOOKING FOR A LOT IN THE WAY OF
TEMPERATURE CHANGE WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
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SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN SOUTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS BEFORE WINDING DOWN AROUND MIDNIGHT. EXPECT ONLY ANOTHER
INCH OR SO IN SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL SOUTHWEST MAINE.
INCREASING UPSLOPE FLOW MAY RESULT IN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN THE NORTH WITH PARTIAL CLEARING DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS. WIND AND CLOUDS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES UP AND
HAVE GONE SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.
GENERALLY LOOKING FOR TEENS IN THE NORTH AND 20S IN THE SOUTH.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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PROLONGED PERIOD OF NW FLOW THURSDAY THRU THE WEEKEND WITH ANY -SHSN
CONFINED TO THE MT AREAS WHILE DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM FOOTHILLS TO THE
COAST PROVIDES MAINLY FAIR WX THOUGH A FEW FLURRIES COULD REACH INTO
THE FOOTHILLS AT TIMES. AS THE SFC LOW DEPARTS OUT TO SEA THURSDAY
THE NW FLOW IS QUITE STRONG THEN GRADUALLY EASES UP THURSDAY NGT AND
FRIDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES. AN UPR LVL SHORT WAVE SWINGS
OUT OF CANADA BUT MOVES TOO FAR S OF THE FCST AREA TO PRODUCE ANY
PRCP OUTSIDE OF MT -SHSN. HOWEVER IT DOES RE-ENFORCE THE W NW FLOW
WITH WINDS PICKING UP OVER THE WEEKEND. ON MONDAY ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA AND BECOMES MORE INTENSE THAN THE FIRST
ONE. IT DEVELOPS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SFC LOW THAT STRENGTHENS ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BEFORE MOVING TO THE NE. THIS MAY BRING SN TO
THE REGION...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW.
NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME SINCE IT IS
STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY.

GENERALLY USED GFS40 AND BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR TEMPS...DEW
POINTS...MAX AND MIN TEMPS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NGT THEN USED GMOS
FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM FCST WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS THAT WERE
MOSTLY MINIMAL.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SHORT TERM...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY DEVELOPING TODAY IN
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE...IMPROVING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...VFR AT TAF SITES THRU THE
LONG TERM AS NW FLOW DOMINATES WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS FROM THE
FOOTHILLS TO THE COAST.
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&&

.MARINE...
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SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...WILL CONT THE GLW THRU 17Z
THURSDAY FOR WIND GUSTS CONTINUING UP TO 35 KT THRU THURSDAY
MORNING AND AN SCA FOR THE BAYS WILL ALSO GO THRU 17Z THU IN
STRONG GUSTY NW FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING OCEAN STORM. OTRW NW WINDS
AND SEAS EASE UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON THRU FRIDAY NGT AS THE NW PRES
GRADIENT WEAKENS. W NW FLOW INCREASES LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BRINGING WINDS BACK UP TO SCA LEVELS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
     GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ150-152-154.
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&&

$$