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000
FXUS64 KHGX 101104
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
504 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010

.DISCUSSION...
QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED BACK OVER THE STATE FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT...BUT NOT MUCH NOTED WITH REGARD TO PCPN SO FAR. HOW-
EVER THE BEST POPS REMAIN PROGGED FOR TONIGHT/TOMORROW COURTESY OF
THE COMBINATION OF SOME STRONG S/WVS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SWLY FLOW
ALOFT AND THE DEVELOPMENT/PROXIMITY OF A COASTAL SFC LOW ALONG THE
TX COAST. VERY HIGH POPS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT/TOMORROW
BUT ONE OF THE MAIN FCST ISSUES REMAINS THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME WINTRY PCPN FOR THIS EVENT. ATTM GOING WITH THE IDEA THAT THE
WINDOW FOR SUCH AN OPPORTUNITY (MAINLY TONIGHT) WILL BE VERY BRIEF
SO WILL BE KEEPING THE MENTION OF SNOW/MIX OUT OF THIS FCST. GIVEN
THE PROGGED PROFILES...RAIN (ALBEIT A COLD RAIN) SHOULD PREVAIL AS
THE PCPN TYPE. THESE SYSTEMS TO EXIT EAST OF THE REGION LATE THURS
BUT WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS TO LINGER ON FRI BEFORE CLEARING OUT AS THE
NWLY FLOW ALOFT DEEPENS (AND CONTINUES ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND).

HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE PICTURE FOR SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF AXIS LINGERS OUT WEST. AS SUCH ANOTHER S/WV PROGGED FOR
THIS TIMEFRAME. AND WHILE THERE ARE CONCERNS WITH AVAILABLE MOIST-
URE...THE PERSISTENCE WITH WHICH MODELS ARE HANGING ONTO THIS DOES
GIVE PAUSE AND WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN FOR SUNDAY. AS FOR THE LONG-
RANGE FCST...WE ARE ALSO SEEING A LOT MORE CONSENSUS WITH THE IDEA
OF HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGING TO OUR WEST AND THE RESULTANT DEEP NNW
FLOW ALOFT FOR US. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO INCREASED CHANCES OF
ARCTIC AIRMASSES HEADED THIS WAY...WITH THE OCCASIONAL S/WV OR TWO.
41

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SETX WILL SHIFT EAST AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A
RELAXATION OF THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY. HAVE A SCEC IN PLACE FOR
THE EARLY MORNING FOR THE 20-60NM WATERS BUT THEN WITH WINDS
RELAXING THE SEAS SHOULD DROP AS WELL. THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE TRACK
OF A COASTAL LOW THAT WILL BE DEVELOPING THURSDAY SSE OF CRP. AS IT
DEVELOPS AND MOVES THIS WAY THE GRADIENT PUCKERS UP AND WINDS OVER
THE WATERS SHOULD EASILY REACH SCA CONDITIONS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
9-10 FEET OFFSHORE BUT THE TIME THE LOW PASSES BY AROUND 50-70NM
OFFSHORE. TIDES WILL RAMP UP BUT THE ASTRONOMICAL RANGE OF ONLY
AROUND 1-1.5FT SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY BIG IMPACTS OTHER THAN ON THE
BEACH SIDE WITH SOME MINOR BEACH FLOODING. IF THE MODELS SHOULD
CHANGE THEIR TUNE AND INCREASE THE EASTERLY FLOW (NOT EXPECTING THIS
CHANGE) THEN THE TIDAL RISE COULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.
AS LOW MOVES EAST EXPECT A STIFF NORTH WIND FRIDAY MORNING BUT THE
MILD PACIFIC AIRMASS THAT OVERSPREADS THE AREA WILL LEAD A RAPID
DROP OFF IN WINDS FRIDAY.
45

&&

.AVIATION...
CIRRUS TRAVERSING THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH MID CLOUDS INCREASING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN LOWERING OVERNIGHT. RAINS
SHOULD HOLD OFF TIL 03-06Z TIMEFRAME. NORTHEAST FLOW OF 5-10KTS
THURSDAY INCREASING TO 10-15KTS AFTER 18Z THU. CIGS DROPPING TO
1200-2000FT THURSDAY AFTER 12Z.
45
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      49  34  41  35  51 /  10  70  90  70  10
HOUSTON (IAH)              49  35  42  35  51 /  10  70  90  90  10
GALVESTON (GLS)            48  41  47  40  51 /  10  60  90  90  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$