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000
FXUS63 KICT 101146
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
546 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
PATCHY RADIATIONAL FOG IS POSSIBLE UNTIL MID-MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL ONLY HAVE
A TEMPO MVFR VSBY. OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA TODAY...WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
SOME MOISTURE RETURN ALOFT AND A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN STRATOCU BASES WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR CATEGORY TONIGHT. PATCHY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL KANSAS.

KED

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010/

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE PATCHY FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

MAY STILL SEE SOME SHALLOW PATCHY FREEZING FOG THROUGH MID/LATE
MORNING TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG BY ANY
MEANS...BUT INSTEAD LOCALIZED SHALLOW PATCHY FOG FOR MAINLY LOW
LYING AREAS OVER SNOW COVERED REGIONS.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDY SKIES WILL ROLL IN FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING...AS LOW TO MID-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION COMMENCES AHEAD
OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT. SIGNAL ISN`T ALL THAT STRONG...BUT WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING...THINKING THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND/OR FREEZING FOG TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THE SLIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO
CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH PATCHY FREEZING FOG CHANCES EXTENDING FARTHER
EAST. BEST FOG CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS.
OTHERWISE...AFTER A FEW MOSTLY CLOUDY DAYS...THINGS SHOULD CLEAR
OUT SOME BY FRIDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA.

GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW DAYS
REGARDING ANOTHER COLD SNAP. ECMWF IS STILL A BIT FASTER THAN THE
GFS...WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS WOULD
SUGGEST THE COLDER AIR TO ARRIVE SOMETIME SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S...WITH LOWS LIKELY IN THE
TEENS. THE CHILLY AIR SHOULD MODERATE SOME BY MONDAY/TUESDAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES EAST...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT CHILLY TEMPERATURES
MAY CONTINUE DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

ADK

AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU

SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY ON WED. LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING..ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS WITH SNOW COVER.  THIS LIGHT WIND AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR THE CROSS-OVER DEWPOINT
TEMP AFTER 10Z/WED...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FREEZING
FOG...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 NEAR THE
KHUT/KICT/KRSL AND KSLN TAF SITES. NOT ALOT OF CONFIDENCE IN HOW LOW
VISIBILITIES WILL GO....BUT LACK OF DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MORE
SURFACE BASED...WILL ONLY LEAD TO MVFR VSBYS OF 2 TO 5 MILES.

MID CLOUD DECK LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF KS AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ON WED...WITH KHUT/KICT/KRSL AND KSLN BECOMING
BKN AT AROUND 5000 FEET FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO WED EVENING.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    32  22  37  24 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      31  21  36  23 /   0  10  10  10
NEWTON          31  21  37  24 /   0   0  10  10
ELDORADO        32  19  37  24 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   33  21  39  25 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         29  19  35  21 /   0  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      30  20  35  22 /   0  10  10  10
SALINA          30  20  36  22 /   0  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       30  20  36  23 /   0  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     33  20  40  26 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         32  18  39  25 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            31  17  39  25 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    32  18  40  25 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$