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000
FXUS63 KIND 101030
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
530 AM EST WED FEB 10 2010

.AVIATION...DISCUSSION FOR 101200Z TAF ISSUANCE. OLD WEAKENING
DEFORMATION ZONE IN THE PROCESS OF PIVOTING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS UPPER LOW
PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST...SO EXPECTING THE VISIBILITY RESTRICTING
SNOWS TO END OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER
BACK ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS...SO THERE MAY BE SOME SCATTERING OUT
OF THE CEILINGS FOR A PERIOD THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN THE COLD AIR
ALOFT...CLOUDS SHOULD FILL BACK IN LATER THIS MORNING. CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN THE 020-030 RANGE TODAY.

PROFILER/MODEL DATA SUGGEST SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 30KTS FROM
290-310 HEADINGS PROBABLE ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY. PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLACK OFF BY THIS AFTERNOON...SO GUSTS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SOME GUSTS 20-25KTS STILL
APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH 110000Z.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE LOWER TEENS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS UNDER AN IMPRESSIVE
COLD POCKET ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW...TO MID AND
UPPER TWENTIES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF CENTRAL INDIANA. STEADY
LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT WAS BEGINNING
TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES...WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS WERE OUT OF THE WEST OR
NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 TO 30 MPH IN
SPOTS...CONTINUING TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH BLOWING AND
DRIFTING...ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS ACCORDING TO AREA LAW
ENFORCEMENT AND COUNTY HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS.

FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE DAY WILL BE REMAINING SNOWFALL CHANCES AND
TEMPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

00Z MODEL RUNS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY...DIVERGING RATHER
SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES. NAM HAS PERFORMED MORE
CONSISTENTLY AS OF LATE AND THUS LEANED MORE TOWARD ITS SOLUTION FOR
THIS FORECAST.

COMPACT BUT POWERFUL UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RACE EAST OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING...BRINGING SNOWFALL TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST.
MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS THROUGH MIDDAY IN THE NORTHEAST TAPERING TO
SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTHWEST...AND LOWERED ACROSS THE BOARD IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKS IN AND DRIES OUT THE SNOW GROWTH
LAYER. LAKE EFFECT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT LEAST SOME SNOW SHOWERS
IN OUR NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME FLURRIES
DURING THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE WIND FIELDS WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR ANY SNOW REACHING OUR COUNTIES.

AFTER CALLS TO SEVERAL COUNTY DISPATCH AND HIGHWAY
DEPARTMENTS...HAVE DECIDED TO MAINTAIN HEADLINES AS THEY ARE THROUGH
THE ANTICIPATED 1 PM EST EXPIRATION DESPITE LITTLE ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL EXPECTED...AS REPORTS INDICATE CONTINUED HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. EVEN METRO
AREA HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS ARE CONTINUING TO FIGHT DRIFTING ACROSS
MAJOR HIGHWAYS AND COUNTY ROADS TEMPORARILY DRIFTING CLOSED. LEVEL
ONE SNOW EMERGENCIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR A HANDFUL OF COUNTIES PER
IDHS...WITH TRAVEL ADVISORIES IN SEVERAL OTHERS. PREFER NOT TO
DOWNGRADE HEADLINES WHILE TRAVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN SO HAZARDOUS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...HELPING
TO ERODE SOME OF THE REMAINING CLOUD COVER AND PROVIDING DRY WEATHER
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A FAST MOVING
CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT MAJOR DIFFERENCES EXIST IN TIMING....AND FOR THAT
MATTER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...AS THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH OUT AHEAD
OF THE CLIPPER COMBINED WITH A SEPARATE WAVE FOLLOWING BEHIND IT
ACROSS THE GULF STATES MAY ACT TO SEVERELY LIMIT ANY AVAILABLE
MOISTURE FEED TO THIS SYSTEM. SLIGHT CHANCE TO VERY LOW END CHANCE
POPS LOOKED FINE OFF THE ENSEMBLE MOS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON TEMPS...GUIDANCE WAS LARGELY IGNORED...AS IT IS STRUGGLING
MIGHTILY TO PERFORM WITH A HEALTHY BLANKET OF SNOW ON THE GROUND AND
A STRANGE TEMPERATURE SITUATION WITH THE COLD POCKET TRAVERSING THE
AREA IN THE NEAR TERM. CLOUD COVER AND ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION WHICH WILL BEGIN AFTER TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK INTO THE
20S ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES...AND HAVE
CUT GUIDANCE HIGHS SIGNIFICANTLY...MORE IN LINE WITH NAM 2 METER
TEMP PROGS. SOME AREAS MAY EVEN REACH THEIR HIGH EARLY IN THE DAY
TODAY.

THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...LEANED HEAVILY ON NAM 2
METER TEMPS...WHICH GENERALLY RESULTED IN MAJOR CUTS TO GUIDANCE
THROUGHOUT...AS AGAIN IT CONTINUES TO PERFORM POORLY WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER IMPACTING ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS.

NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND DAY 4 THIS MORNING.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>049-054>057-062>065-070>072.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR INZ051>053-
060-061-067>069.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...NIELD
AVIATION...JAS