National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS62 KJAX 100910
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
355 AM EST WED FEB 10 2010

...WINDY AND COLD DAY IN STORE TODAY...
...WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LOW OVER THE OH VALLEY CONTINUES TO MOVE E. FLOW
OVER THE IMMEDIATE AREA IS MOSTLY ZONAL WITH HIGH CLOUDINESS OVER
THE S PLAINS AND N MEXICO. SFC COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE FL
PENINSULA WITH A SECONDARY FRONT ACROSS N GA. STRONG NW WINDS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WITH SUSTAINED VALUES OF 15 MPH AND GUSTS
TO AROUND 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 30S
OVER OUR NW ZONES WITH MID 50S OVER THE SE ZONES. PATCH OF LOW
CLOUDS IS RACING SE ACROSS OUR NE FL ZONES WITH DRY CHANNELS ON
THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS DUE TO STRONG CLOUD-LEVEL WINDS AND
TURBULENT MIXING.

.SHORT TERM...LOW CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
MAKE IT ABOVE 50 DURING THE DAY. THIS...COUPLED WITH STRONG
WINDS...WILL PRODUCE A VERY COLD DAY ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE
CONTINUED THE EXISTING LAKE WIND ADVISORY PRODUCTS WITH THE INLAND
PORTION STARTING A BIT LATER THIS MORNING. SUSPECT SOME AREAS WILL
BE CLOSE TO STRAIGHT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM TIME TO TIME WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH...BUT ON AVERAGE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
SHOULD SUFFICE. MODELS ALSO HINT THAT WINDS MAY BE A BIT LOWER
OVER OUR EXTREME S ZONES...BUT NOT ENUF CERTAINTY TO REMOVE ANY
ZONES FROM EXISTING PRODUCT. WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDINESS LATER IN THE DAY AS MOISTURE FROM THE W BEGINS TO
MOVE ACROSS THE GOMEX.

MIN TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT...WITH
READINGS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
REMAIN STRONG...BUT WINDS WILL LIKELY PREVENT MOST LOCATIONS FROM
REACHING A HARD FREEZE. MAY SEE SOME 26 TO 27 DEGREE READINGS OVER
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY WITH DURATIONS AT OR BELOW 27 OF LESS THAN 2
HOURS. AS A RESULT...HAVE UPGRADED FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE
WARNING OVER ALL OF NE FL. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO HOIST A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF NE FL FOR TONIGHT AS SUSTAINED
WINDS REMAIN ABOVE 10 MPH.

NEXT FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE PRECIP EVENT ON FRI AND FRI NIGHT.
GFS PROGS THE SFC LOW TO BE A BIT FARTHER N THAN RUN OF 24 HRS
AGO. STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ENUF DRY AIR OVER THE N ZONES
TO PREVENT PRECIP UNTIL TEMPS WARM UP FRI MORNING. STILL A NARROW
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP ON THE N EDGE OF THE
PRECIP AREA. MAY BE ANOTHER NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FRI
NIGHT ON BACK EDGE OF PRECIP AREA AS IT DEPARTS. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS LOW THREAT IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...NEXT COLD FRONT PROGGED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA LATE
SUN NIGHT WITH MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES. TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. HAVE MADE ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW DECK OF MVFR CIGS IS NOW GONE AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH GUSTY W/NW WINDS MAIN IMPACT AT LOCAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ALREADY BEING REPORTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND GALE WARNINGS APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE ON THURSDAY WITH NO HEADLINES
EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE
OF NEXT LOW ON FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH SCA CONDS EXPECTED.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE TODAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
INTO THE 20-30% RANGE COMBINED WITH NW WINDS OF 15-25G35 MPH AT
TIMES. HAVE KEPT FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY WITH LONG
DURATIONS OF LOW RH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACRS NERN FL BUT INCREASE IN
CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND LESS MIXING MAY MAKE THIS EVENT A
BIT MORE MARGINAL THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  51  27  55  30 /   0   0   0  10
SSI  50  30  54  35 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  51  28  55  33 /   0   0   0  10
SGJ  51  31  54  38 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  52  27  56  35 /   0   0   0  10
OCF  52  28  57  35 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM THIS
     EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-
     HAMILTON-MARION-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM THIS
     EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-
     FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-
     SUWANNEE-UNION.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-DUVAL-
     FLAGLER-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM THURSDAY FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-
     FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-
     SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM THIS
     EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM THIS
     EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-
     COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-
     INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN.

AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM THURSDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 60 NM.

&&

$$

CARROLL/HESS