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FXUS64 KLUB 100530 AAA
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS CONTINUE TO BE IN THE VFR RANGE BUT ARE SLOWLY DECREASING
IN ALTITUDE WITH TIME. WE EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP DOWN INTO THE
MVFR RANGE OVERNIGHT AND THERE STILL REMAINS A CHANCE KLBB COULD
FLIRT WITH IFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS HOWEVER
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010/

SHORT TERM...
PERSISTENT WEST-NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW THAT ASSISTED IN CLOUD COVER
TODAY WILL BACK TO WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS EARLY WEDNESDAY. SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE
LOW CLOUD ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BUT CHANGING UPPER
FLOW WILL BRING AN EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUD SHIELD ACROSS THE AREA.
SHALLOW COOL AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL BE A BIT MODIFIED TONIGHT BY
THE CLOUDS...BUT INSOLAR RADIATION WILL BE LIMITED AGAIN WEDNESDAY
RESULTING IN A REDUCED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWING. SO CLOUDS SEEM TO
BE THE OVER-RIDING ELEMENT FOR THE COMING 24 HOURS WITH OTHER FEATURES
MUTED AS A RESULT. THE NEXT VIGOROUS UPPER LOW MEANWHILE WILL EDGE
ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE WEDNESDAY WITH LATEST TRENDS A
BIT DEEPER AND SLOWER. RMCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
EFFORT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WAS CONCENTRATED AROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WHEN
LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

CURRENT WV IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ITS WAY
SSEWD JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CA COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE NORTHERN BAJA BY LATE WEDNESDAY BEFORE IT
TURNS MORE EASTWARD AND PASSES ACROSS WEST TEXAS LATE THU OR EARLY
FRI. THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH
WITH THE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL DELAY THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
UNTIL THU WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FAVORING SOUTHERN SECTIONS. THIS
TRACK...WITH AN OPENING AND FILLING SYSTEM AND LIMITED LOW-LEVEL
INFLUX OF MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...WITH THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS GENERATING BETWEEN ONE AND THREE
TENTH OF QPF. OTHER QUESTION MARK REVOLVES AROUND PRECIP TYPE...WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICTING LOW-LOW THERMAL PROFILES HOOVERING
RIGHT AROUND THE CRITICAL FREEZING MARK...WITH A WEAK WARM NOSE NEAR
800 MB. THUS...DEPENDING WHICH WAY TEMPERATURES GO...WE COULD SEE
COLD RAIN...SLEET OR SNOW...OR A COMBINATION OF ALL THREE. FOR
NOW...HAVE DECIDED NOT TO GET TOO FANCY IN THE GRIDS AND HAVE
PAINTED A RAIN/SNOW MIX THROUGH THE WED NIGHT/THU PERIOD...WITH THE
DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT IN THE FUTURE. WE HAVE ALSO ISSUED A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL WINTRY WEATHER IN THE
AREA.

IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. ONE S/W WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
SAT/SUN...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH A POTENT CLOSED LOW DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST...IT WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTH
PLAINS LATE SAT. MODELS DO INDICATE LOW-LEVEL SATURATION IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT...BUT LIFT LOOKS QUITE WEAK...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING
MORE THAN PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES. THE NEXT S/W TROUGH IS PROGGED INTO
THE AREA NEXT TUESDAY...THOUGH MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED.
STILL...IT COULD SUPPORT ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH. ALL SAID...HAVE KEPT FORECAST DRY BEYOND LATE THU
NIGHT.

AFTER A CHILLY NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
BACK INTO THE 50S BY FRI/SAT...BEFORE BEING KNOCKED BACK DOWN INTO
THE 40S BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        21  38  26  40  24 /   0  10  20  30  10
TULIA         21  35  26  39  25 /   0  10  20  40  20
PLAINVIEW     23  35  27  39  25 /   0  10  20  50  20
LEVELLAND     26  39  28  38  26 /  10  10  40  50  20
LUBBOCK       25  38  28  38  28 /   0  10  30  50  20
DENVER CITY   26  41  29  37  27 /  10  10  40  50  20
BROWNFIELD    26  38  30  37  29 /  10  10  40  50  20
CHILDRESS     22  38  27  40  30 /   0  10  20  40  20
SPUR          25  39  29  38  29 /   0  10  30  50  20
ASPERMONT     24  40  29  39  29 /   0  10  30  50  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

14/26/14
National Weather Service National Headquarters
