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000
FXUS62 KMFL 100903
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
403 AM EST WED FEB 10 2010

...POSSIBLE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWEST INTERIOR LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

...WIND CHILL VALUES COULD PLUMMET OVER THE EAST AND WEST COAST
METRO AREAS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...BOTH ECMWF AND GFS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE COLD FRNT MOVING WELL
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. A CANADIAN HIGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WELL ESTABLISHED N-NW FLOW
AFFECTING THE PENINSULA THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO
ADVECT MUCH DRIER AND COLDER AIR OVER MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WITH
MAX TEMPS BARELY REACHING 70 EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPS SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVER ALL
OF S. FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WITH A GOOD PORTION OF
THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR POSSIBLY REACHING FREEZING OR BELOW FREEZING
TEMPS. BOTH, EAST AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS COULD SEE MIN TEMPS
DIVING INTO THE UPPER 30S...EXCEPT FOR COASTAL BROWARD/METRO MIAMI
WHERE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE L/M 40S. HOWEVER, LOW TEMPS ARE
NOT THE ONLY PROBLEM TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON WIND SPEED, WIND CHILL
VALUES COULD ALSO PLUMMET TO THE M/U 30S OVER ERN AND WESTERN
METRO AND TO MUCH LOWER VALUES ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY COULD BE ISSUED FOR
SOME PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING. THE
SFC HIGH SHOULD MOVE EAST OVER SE U.S. THURSDAY WITH SFC WINDS
SHIFTING TO NE BY THU EVENING STARTING A RATHER QUICK WARMING TREND.

.FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEX AND MOVE TO JUST WEST OF THE
PENINSULA BY FRI EVENING. WHILE BOTH GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON THE
SPEED OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE GULF...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AS
TO WHERE THE LOW WILL CROSS THE PENINSULA AND, IN TURN, IN THE
TYPE OF WX, WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. ECMWF
HAS THE LOW CROSSING FURTHER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE
GFS MOVES THE LOW RIGHT THROUGH S. FLORIDA. THIS WILL PUT S.
FLORIDA UNDER A HIGH RISK OF SVR WX WITH VERY HIGH HELICITY VALUES
AND THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR BEING LIMITED INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...LATEST TREND IN THE GFS HAS BEEN TO MOVE THE LOW FURTHER
NORTH IN EVERY RUN...SO A FURTHER NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THIS
LOW TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE IN FUTURE RUNS. IN ANNY
CASE...WL EXPECT WX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE TO COME QUICKLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY AND AN EQUALLY QUICK DRY UP SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NE
AND IS REPLACED BY A SFC HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEX.


&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED. A WEAK FRONT MAY APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA
MONDAY HOWEVER IT SEEMS IT WILL LACK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS MOST
ENERGY REMAINS WELL NORTH. WL INDICATE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH TEMPS REMAINING NEAR SEASONAL
VALUES.

.MARINE...SFC WINDS WL SHIFT NW BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING AND
REMAIN ABOVE 20 KTS OVER MOST WATERS (EXCEPT NEAR SHORE GULF AND
BISCAYNE BAY) AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
DECREASE TONIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH VERY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN THE GULF STREAM. SEAS IN THE
GULF STREAM COULD FINALLY SUBSIDE THU EVENING JUST IN TIME FOR THE
WINDS TO INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MUCH DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS S. FLORIDA
TODAY WILL RESULT IN RH VALUES WELL BELOW 35% FOR SEVERAL HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO
BE AFFECTED BY THESE LOW RH VALUES...EXCEPT WEST COAST LOCATIONS
AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MIAMI-DADE.

CONDITIONS COULD EVEN BE DRIER THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEING AFFECTED BY RH BELOW 35% FOR
SEVERAL HOURS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  64  38  63  46 / 0 0 0 10
FORT LAUDERDALE  69  43  65  50 / 0 0 0 10
MIAMI            70  44  66  51 / 0 0 0 -
NAPLES           64  38  63  42 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM
     BEACH-GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND BROWARD-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND
     MIAMI DADE-INLAND PALM BEACH-MAINLAND MONROE-METRO BROWARD-
     METRO MIAMI DADE-METRO PALM BEACH.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL BROWARD-
     COASTAL COLLIER-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-FAR
     SOUTH MIAMI DADE-GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND BROWARD-INLAND
     COLLIER-INLAND MIAMI DADE-INLAND PALM BEACH-MAINLAND MONROE-
     METRO BROWARD-METRO MIAMI DADE-METRO PALM BEACH.

     FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND PALM BEACH.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
     WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING
     FROM 20 NM TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-WATERS
     FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20
     NM TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR BISCAYNE
     BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAKE
     OKEECHOBEE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR GULF WATERS
     FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT
     20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE/FIRE...47/RGH
AVIATION...04/AT