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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KMHX 100323
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1004 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT
THE DEEPEN RAPIDLY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WEST WILL BUILD SLOWLY INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 PM TUESDAY...MSAS SHOWS SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER ERN NC
THIS EVENING. BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN IS MOVING OFFSHORE WITH QUITE A
BIT OF LIGHTER ACTVTY STILL SPREADING NE ACROSS THE REGION. WILL
MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS A CPL MORE HOURS THEN GRAD END PRECIP FROM SW
TO NE LATER AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN. ALSO ADDED SOME FOG AND DRIZZLE
WORDING TO MOST AREAS THIS EVENING PER CURRENT OBS. BEST FOG LIKELY
NEAR CST NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SFC DEWPTS NEAR OR ABOVE WTR TEMPS. AS
THE LOW CONTS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT N LATER TONIGHT MUCH DRIER AIR
WILL WORK IN ENDING THE THREAT FOR FOG. TEMPS WILL LIKELY CHANGE
LITTLE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH WEAK GRDNT AS LOW DEVELOPS THEN RAPIDLY
DROP LATE AS STRONG CAA KICKS IN. WINDS WILL REALLY START TO
INCREASE NEAR DAYBREAK AS THE LOW RAPIDLY DEEPENS TO THE N.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...MAIN STORY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL
BE THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA AS THE LOW BOMBS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL BE 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH. ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH SO WILL
ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING THAT AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES...THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO:
1) DANGEROUSLY LOW WATER LEVELS IN THE THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO
RIVERS PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF A LOW WATER ADVISORY. 2) A SOUND
SIDE FLOOD THREAT ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS WHERE WATER LEVELS OF
AROUND 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WILL PRODUCE FLOODING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. 3) DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF
30-35% WHICH IS JUST BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY AND THE GRADIENT DECREASES ALLOWING WINDS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NC.
WINDS COULD STILL BE GUSTY THURSDAY BUT WELL BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE OFF THE SE COAST SOUTH OF
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE CONSENSUS OF THE
MODELS KEEP THE MEASURE ABLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM SOUTH
OF THE AREA. SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM
CLOSELY. THE GLOBAL GEM WAS MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN THE
CONSENSUS...AT OUTLIER OR A SIGNAL OF THINGS TO COME. FOR NOW WILL
BE STICKING WITH A DRY FORECAST ALTHOUGH A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 10 PM TUE...LOW PRES IS DEVELOPING OVER ERN NC THIS EVENING.
CURRENTLY HAVE RATHER WEAK GRDNT ACROSS THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT IFR OR WORSE PAST MIDNIGHT AS SCT SHRA WITH
AREAS DRIZZLE AND FOG CONTINUE...THEN AS LOW LIFTS TO THE N DRIER
AIR WILL WORK IN LATE WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS. THE BIG STORY AFTER
THAT THOUGH WILL BE THE WIND. A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. SUSTAINED
WEST WINDS OF 25-35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 50 KNOTS WILL CAN BE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND DIMINISH SLOWLY. SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 20-30 KNOTS IN THE
EVENING DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS IN
STORE FOR THURSDAY WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED...WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO BE DRY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON SATURDAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFF THE COAST TO KEEP PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 10 PM TUE...WITH STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HRS OR
SO DROPPED THE GALE HEADLINE. ADDED SOME FOG INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS PER HIGH DEWPTS. ALSO DROPPED WINDS SPEEDS INIT AS GRADIENT IS
CURRENTLY RATHER WEAK ALONG THE COAST.

PREV DISC...CONSENSUS FAVORS A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF/SREF
FOR THE WINDS. USED SWAN FOR THE SEAS THROUGH 12Z THEN 12Z WAVEWATCH
AFTER THAT. LOW PRESSURE NOW QUICKLY INTENSIFYING OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST WILL TRACK ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS
EVENING...EXITING THE NORTH COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO
GALE/STORM HEADLINES AS TIMING/INSTENSITY OF WINDS/SEAS SHOWS LITTLE
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY AS THE
LOW MOVES AWAY BUT HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MID-MS VALLEY MOVES
LITTLE. THE FLOW WILL RANGE FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTH FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BACK TO WEST ON SUNDAY AS A FAST-MOVING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ029-
     044>046-079-080-090>094-098.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ047-081-
     095.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NCZ103-104.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NCZ103-
     104.
MARINE...LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ135.
     STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...JME
AVIATION...RF/HSA
MARINE...RF/HSA