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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

000
FXUS63 KMKX 100938
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
338 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH

LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING...AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS AWAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO REMAIN TIGHTER ACROSS THE EAST CLOSER TO THE
LOW...WITH BREEZY WINDS ALLOWING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF
SNOW TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. SEEING A PRETTY GOOD STREAM OF LOW CLOUDS
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW...BUT AS THE WINDS TURN
NORTHWEST TODAY...SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
STATE AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...COULD SEE
SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. WENT A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
MODEL TEMPS WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK IN PLACE.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE STATE ON
THURSDAY...WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOULD SEE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...BUT STILL OPTED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS
SOME WITH A CHILLY START TO THE DAY...KEEPING HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

FIRST OF TWO WAVES PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE STATE ON FRIDAY...WITH
MODELS FINALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THE NAM AND GFS MOVE THE
500 MB SYSTEM RIGHT OVER THE STATE...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
AND BULK OF PRECIP STAYING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH. PREVIOUS ECMWF
RUNS WERE ABSORBING THE ENERGY INTO THE TRAILING WAVE...DRAWING
THE SFC LOW AND PRECIP FURTHER NORTH OVER SRN WI FRIDAY NIGHT.
NEWEST ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO CURRENT GFS AND NAM...SO FEEL A LITTLE
MORE CONFIDENT WITH JUST HAVING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

.LONG TERM...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM

MODELS NOW AGREE BETTER WITH TIMING OF SECOND...STRONGER WAVE FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF HAD CONSISTENTLY BEEN QUICKER AND A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST THAN THE GFS...WITH THE CANADIAN EVEN FURTHER WEST
THAN THE GFS. SIMILAR TO THE PRECEDING SHORTWAVE...THE LATEST
ECMWF HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE GFS...SUGGESTING A DRIER SCENARIO.
LOWERED POPS A TOUCH FOR SATURDAY AND KEPT SUNDAY DRY...AS MODELS
KEEP BULK OF PRECIP TIED CLOSELY TO BEST UPPER ENERGY AND SFC
LOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO SWING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN AT OR A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...FINALLY LIFTING TO VFR THIS EVENING...THEN CLEARING WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT.  LIGHT SNOW IN THE EAST THIS MORNING...THEN ENDING.
NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROBLEM FOR AIRPORT OPERATIONS INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON...WINDS
WILL HOLD STEADY FROM 330 DEGREES. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

&&

.MARINE...WILL REPLACE THE GALE WARNING WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 09Z THU. GRADIENT FLOW NOT AS STRONG AS
EXPECTED AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...DDV/07
AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS/05