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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 100908
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
408 AM EST WED FEB 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND INTENSIFIES
RAPIDLY AS IT PASSES SOUTH AND EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
ON MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW PRESSURE OFF VA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY AS IT PASSES NEAR THE BENCHMARK.
SNOW MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH...WITH TIMING BEST HANDLED BY GFS.
MOST GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SIMILAR WITH HANDLING OF LOW...BOTH
POSITION AND STRENGTH...AND SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME LOW
LEVEL WARMING WHICH MAINLY EXTENDS ACROSS CSTL SECTIONS (LI AND
POSSIBLY INTO SERN CT). THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME MIXING OF
SLEET AND RAIN...WHICH WOULD IN TURN KEEP SNOW AMOUNTS DOWN
SOMEWHAT. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS THROUGH THE MORNING. IF MIXING
DOES NOT OCCUR AND EVAP COOLING FROM INTENSE SNOW BANDS/LIFT COOLS THE
COLUMN JUST ENOUGH...THEN AMOUNTS COULD BE SEVERAL INCHES HIGHER.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY. DID NOT ACCEPT WARMER
MAVS...PARTICULARLY EASTERN LI.

AS FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...WINDS STRONG WITH GUSTS DEFINITELY
REACHING 35 TO 40 MPH. THE QUESTION IS SNOW INTENSITY AND THUS
VSBYS. OVERALL FEEL CONDITIONS WILL BE MET NEAR THE
COAST...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON WHEN WINDS INCREASE AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
BANDING CONTINUES BEHIND DEPARTING LOW AS WINDS TURN TO THE NORTH
AND REMAIN QUITE STRONG. STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR THIS EVENING...SO
BEST CHANCE FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE INTO THE EVENING. BLOWING
AND DRIFTING OF SNOW LIKELY AS THE SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT. OVERALL QPF OF 3/4 OF AN INCH TO 1 1/2 INCHES NEAR
THE COAST EXPECTED. BASICALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WETTER
NAM AND DRIER GFS.

TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-16 INCHES OUTSIDE OF WHERE ANY
MIXING WITH RAIN TAKES PLACE. FARTHER NORTH/EAST...LESSER QPF
AND/OR MIXING WITH RAIN SHOULD HOLD ACCUMULATIONS DOWN A
LITTLE...WITH 8-12 INCHES EXPECTED.

STRONG WINDS PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST WILL BE DRY THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME AS DEEP NORTHWEST
FLOW PREVAILS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER
FLOW...WITH LOW PRES PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY.
SO...WILL SEE CHANCES FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY INLAND...WITH
A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THE CLIPPER.

A NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ALSO PREDOMINATES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH IN PLACE AND NORTHERLY FLOW.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED ECMWF AND HPC GUIDANCE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL INTENSIFY AS
IT TRACKS NORTH TONIGHT AND WED MORNING...THEN OUT TO SEA WED AFTN
AND EVE.

CONDS QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO IFR OR LOWER ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 08Z
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS PREVAILS FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.
STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET TO MIX IN AT COASTAL TERMINALS
WED MORNING...SO HAVE NOT REMOVED IT IN THE 06Z TAFS. THINK IT WILL BE
BRIEF SO CUT IT DOWN TO A 3 HR WINDOW. MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC ON
IMPROVING CONDS BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z.

NE WINDS INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WED. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR GUSTS
TO REACH 35 KT AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN.

EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS...
JFK/LGA/EWR/TEB/ISP - 10-14"
BDR/GON/SWF - 8-12"
HEAVIEST RATES EXPECTED BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z WHERE 2" PER HOUR IS
POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK 06Z THU THROUGH SUN...
WED NIGHT...VFR RETURNS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH -SN ENDING. GUSTY NW WINDS.
THU-SUN...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS EACH DAY...SUBSIDING AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
LOW PRES CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...AND WILL
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGH THIS MORNING AS IT TRACKS NE...JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND. E/NE WINDS INCREASE TO GALE FORCE ALL WATERS LATE
THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON...AND STORM FORCE ACROSS THE
OCEAN WATERS. WINDS TURN N/NE THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY WEAKENING BY
DAYBREAK THU BEFORE DIMINISHING TO SCA CONDITIONS ON THU AS LOW PRES
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY. 50 TO 55 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN THIS
EVENING. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 12 TO 16 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 4 TO
8 FT ON THE SOUND LATER TODAY.

GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT.

FRI THROUGH SUNDAY COULD SEE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE
TIME...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS WHERE WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEAS
WILL BE ABOVE SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. GENERALLY A NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW
WILL PREDOMINATE. A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MON WITH A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT QPF EXPECTED BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
A COASTAL STORM. LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF CALLS FOR 0.75 INCH NORTH
AND 1-1.5 INCHES NEAR THE COAST...PREDOMINANTLY SNOW. NO FLOODING
ISSUES EXPECTED...WITH MUCH OF THE MELTING RE-FREEZING IN THE SNOW
PACK AS TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...THE STRONGEST WINDS AND WAVES WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY THU
MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE DURING
THE EVE HIGH TIDE...WHEN FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING...3.5 TO 4
FT DEPARTURES ARE NEEDED...WHILE 2.5 TO 3 FT DEPARTURES ARE NEEDED
FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. GFS SURGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME
LOCATIONS SUCH AS KINGS POINT AND BRIDGEPORT WILL HAVE THE NEAR 3
FT DEPARTURES...WITH COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE. OTHER LOCATIONS
FALL ABOUT AT LEAST 0.5 FT SHORT OF WATER LEVELS NEEDED FOR COASTAL
FLOODING. SURGE GUIDANCE FROM STEVENS INSTITUTE IS NOT HAS HIGH
WITH BRIDGEPORT AND KINGS POINT WATER LEVELS...SO CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO WARRANT A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
HOWEVER...IF LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS MORE THAN WHAT IS BEING
PREDICTED...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED.

POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 4 TO 5 FT MAY BE NOTED DURING THE TIMES
OF LOW TIDE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN LOW PRESSURE IS RAPIDLY
DEEPENING...BUT THESE DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 3 FT AS
TIDES APPROACH ASTRONOMICAL HIGHS AND WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO THE
N/NW. THIS SHOULD LIMIT COASTAL FLOODING TO MINOR LEVELS. HIGH WAVE
ACTION ON THE NORTH FACING SHORES OF LI SOUND WILL LIKELY EXACERBATE
THE MINOR FLOODING. WILL HOLD OFF ON THIS 2ND PERIOD ADVISORY TO
LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFT MONITOR DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE.

TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 2 TO 2 1/2 FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR AND 3 TO 4 FT
FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING EARLY THU MORNING. MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THURS MORN ON THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS DUE TO HIGH
WAVE ACTION PREVENTING DRAINAGE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ005-006-
     009-010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ007-008-
     011-012.
NY...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ072>081.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ067>071.
NJ...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ005-006-011.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ002>004.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JM