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000
FXUS64 KOUN 101146
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
546 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL MVFR STRATUS MOVES
UP FROM CENTRAL TEXAS LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER...A DECK OF MID CLOUDS AT 4 TO 6 THOUSAND FEET
WAS BEST REFLECTED IN THE RUC MODEL AT THE 285K ISENTROPIC LEVEL.
THE NAM DID NOT CAPTURE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE CLOUD LAYER
VERY WELL. SINCE THE RUC ONLY FORECASTS 12 HOURS...IT IS DIFFICULT
TO SAY WHETHER THE CLOUD LAYER WILL BE SUSTAINED. IT APPEARS...
THOUGH...THAT MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL DECREASE AROUND
00Z...AND AN ASSOCIATED DECREASE IN LIFTING COULD CAUSE THE CLOUDS
TO SCATTER. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED...EXCEPT PERHAPS LIGHT
RAIN OR SNOW ACCOMPANYING THE STRATUS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CST WED FEB 10 2010/

DISCUSSION...WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AROUND A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE
TODAY. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS A WAVE MIGRATES
ACROSS BAJA...SENDING PACIFIC MOISTURE DOWNSTREAM WITHIN A
STOUT...150 KNOT UPPER JET. THE CLOUDS SHOULD BE THIN ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR SOME WARMING...AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALSO
AIDE RISING TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S.
A LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND WORK ITS
WAY NORTH THROUGH OKLAHOMA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
THIS WILL OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH APPROACHING ALONG THE U.S.
AND MEXICO BORDER.

MOST OF THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN HANDLING THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM...WHILE THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE A BIT SLOWER AND MORE
AMPLIFIED. THE MAJORITY OF MID AND LOW LEVEL LIFTING WILL PASS SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 20 IN TEXAS ON THURSDAY...BUT LIFT ALONG A MID LEVEL
FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO YIELD LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM NORTH
TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. ALONG WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WE
INCREASED POPS OVER THAT AREA...WHILE INDICATING A QUICK DROP OFF
TOWARD TRACE AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH INTO OKLAHOMA. WHILE IT IS LIKELY
THAT SNOW WILL FORM IN THE CLOUD LAYER AND REACH NEAR GROUND
LEVEL...THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL FACTORS THAT ARGUE AGAINST ANY
APPRECIABLE SNOW ACCUMULATION. WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT
THE EVENT...ALL MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING...AND THE SREF WINTER WEATHER ALGORITHMS HAVE TRENDED
EVEN STRONGER TOWARD A RAIN/SNOW MIX...IF NOT PLAIN RAIN BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WE STILL THINK THAT ANY SNOWFALL
WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS. IF ANY ACCUMULATION DOES OCCUR...IT
WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH A TENDENCY TO MELT LATER IN THE DAY.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT WE HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST.
FARTHER NORTHWEST IN OKLAHOMA...SOME DRIZZLE...SPRINKLES...OR
FLURRIES MAY SHAKE OUT OF THE CLOUD LAYER AS WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE...AND PACIFIC AIR ATTEMPTS TO SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDY...
STABLE AIR THAT WAS IN PLACE. CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT THE PACE OF
THIS PROCESS COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. THE
CLOUDS SHOULD BE LARGELY GONE BY SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR ONE MORE
MILD DAY JUST BEFORE THE NEXT CANADIAN COLD FRONT ARRIVES.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SLIGHT MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...THEY HAVE
CONSISTENTLY FORECAST A SHARP COOL DOWN...WITH A CHANCE OF VERY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER BEYOND MONDAY...WHEN THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AMPLIFYING AS THEY DIP INTO THE PLAINS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. THEREFORE...WE DID NOT GO WITH LOW POPS IN THE
MEX MOS NEXT TUESDAY...AND OPTED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY UNTIL
GREATER CONSISTENCY DEVELOPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  37  27  38  29 /   0  20  30  10
HOBART OK         40  28  36  30 /   0  10  30  10
WICHITA FALLS TX  42  31  36  30 /   0  30  70  20
GAGE OK           35  25  39  27 /   0   0   0   0
PONCA CITY OK     35  27  38  29 /   0  10  10  10
DURANT OK         42  31  38  33 /   0  40  70  60

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/22/22
BURKE