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000
FXUS65 KPUB 101029
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
329 AM MST WED FEB 10 2010

.SHORT TERM...
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

SHORTWAVE RIDGE CURRENTLY PROGRESSING OVER THE REGION WILL FLATTEN
AND SHIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES ALONG THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER...AND A WEAK TROUGH
DROPS SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR
TODAY WILL BE SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.  CURRENTLY...STRATUS
CLOUD DECK STRETCHES NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND ALONG
THE KS/CO BORDER.  WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED...TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WHILE REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER
TEENS UNDER THE CLOUD DECK.  FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS ALSO PROVED TO BE
PROBLEMATIC THIS MORNING WITH MOST AREAS SEEING DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS OF 3 TO 5 DEGREES.  THE EXCEPTION SPOT SEEMS TO BE
COLORADO SPRINGS WHERE AREAS OF FOG HAVE LOWERED VISIBILITIES THIS
MORNING.  DO EXPECT TO SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY BY DAYBREAK THAT WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT OUT OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION THIS
MORNING GENERATING LIGHT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS.  LOCAL WRF RUN INDICATING LIGHT SNOW THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH ALSO HAS SUPPORT FROM THE NAM
AND GFS.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS WITH LESS
THAN 2 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.  BROAD TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
PLAY A ROLE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.  MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY PROVIDING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WHICH WILL ERODE THE
CLOUD DECK ENOUGH TO ALLOW WARMING ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  HOW FAR
EAST THE STRATUS DECK ERODES IS THE QUESTION.  CURRENTLY HAVE
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 30S ALONG AND WEST OF I-25 WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT NEAR 30 OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.  FORECAST
HIGHS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE KS BORDER MAY BE A BIT ON THE WARM
SIDE WITH THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 20S.

LIGHT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LOOKS TO DIE OFF
BETWEEN 03 AND 06Z TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND
BROAD TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA.  MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY AND ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER TONIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE PLAINS.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

NW FLOW ALOFT WL BE FOUND OVR THE AREA ON THURSDAY. DRY WEA IS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...BUT IN THE
AFTERNOON A SHRTWV TROF WL MOVE INTO NORTHERN CO AND THEN
CONTINUES MOVING SSE ACRS THE CWA THU NIGHT. AT THIS TIME THE
MODELS KEEP THE WEA DRY ACRS THE CWA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
CENTRAL MTS. NW FLOW CONTINUES THRU FRI WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL MTS. HIGH TEMP FORECAST IS A BIT OF A
CHALLENGE WITH MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS IN POOR AGREEMENT...WILL KEEP
TEMPS ON THE LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE. WHICH IS AROUND OR A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL. LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT A SHRTWV TROF MOVES THRU THE
NW FLOW ACRS MAINLY WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH ANOTHER WEAKER
SHRTWV TROF BRUSHING ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH A FRONT MOVING THRU SE CO. FRI NIGHT THRU THE FIRST
HALF OF SAT...PCPN SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREA ALONG THE
CONTDVD...BUT THEN SPREADING EWRD FOR SAT AFTERNOON AND SAT
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH WL JUST GO WITH ISOLD POPS AT THIS TIME.
UNSETTLED AND COOLER N TO NW FLOW WL BE FOUND OVR THE AREA SUN AND
COULD SEE SOME ISOLD PCPN ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF FOR MON
AND TUE SHOWS DRY NORTHERLY FLOW OVR THE CWA...WHILE THE GFS
BRINGS A STRONGER SHRTWV TROF MOVING SOUTHWARD THRU THE FORECAST
AREA AND BRINGING CHANCES FOR PCPN. WL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

FOG CURRENTLY AN ISSUE AT KCOS WITH LIFR CONDITIONS PRESENT.  EXPECT
THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THIS MORNING THROUGH 14Z IMPROVING TO
VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 16Z.  CURRENT STRATUS DECK OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS IS CAUSING MVFR TO IFR CIGS AT KPUB.  DRY AIR WILL HELP
PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KPUB THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST BY 16Z.  FOG AND LOW CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING
IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WITH KALS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING LIFR
CONDITIONS.  THE FOG AND STRATUS OVER THE VALLEY WILL BREAK BY 18Z
WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY 20Z.  FOG AND LOW CIGS DUE TO
STRATUS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A FACTOR TONIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS WITH
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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