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000
FXUS65 KSLC 100404
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
904 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL TURN EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA
WEDNESDAY...SPREADING MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN UTAH. HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTH ALONG
THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. RIDGING EXTENDS NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO 130W. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ARE APPROACHING
THE GULF OF ALASKA. 400-250MB ACARS WIND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
160-205KT WESTERLY JET ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE CONUS. 00Z
700MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A CYCLONE ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
WARMING IS OCCURRING LOCALLY WITH -10C REPORTED AT KSLC AND -9C
UPSTREAM AT KLKN. 00Z KSLC RAOB SHOWS LITTLE THERMAL CHANGE THROUGH
THE COLUMN DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.

GOES/RUC PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICATE VALUES RANGE FROM A TENTH OF AN
INCH ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH TO BETWEEN A THIRD AND HALF OF AN INCH
ACROSS SOUTHWEST UTAH.

STORM SYSTEM IS EVOLVING PRETTY MUCH AS FORECAST. WILL BE KEEPING
POPS AND QPF AS IS TONIGHT. DID ADJUST SKY GRIDS FOR LATEST
TRENDS...LOWERING VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA. ALSO
REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER WITH SUNSET...INSTABILITY HAS REMAINED
CONCENTRATED FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS ARIZONA.

LEFT MENTION OF FOG IN THE COLDER NORTHERN VALLEYS. ADDED MENTION
OF AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH WHERE SATURATION HAS
OCCURRED. OTHERWISE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN GENERALLY MILD CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRUSH NORTHERN UTAH DURING
THIS TIME...WHICH COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO NORTHERN UTAH.
ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE NOT COME INTO FULL AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH OF
EACH OF THE SHORTWAVES...THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS
AT THIS TIME TO OCCUR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE
SLC TERMINAL AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND CEILINGS BELOW
7000 FT HAVE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF OCCURRING AFTER ABOUT 10Z.
HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THESE CEILINGS DEVELOPING IS UNCERTAIN...BUT
THE BEST BET FOR CEILINGS BELOW 7000 FT AGL IS BETWEEN 12Z AND 19Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...ROGOWSKI/CHENG
AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)