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000
FXUS66 KSTO 100427
AFDSTO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
800 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2010

.DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
UPPER LOW NOW NEAR SANTA BARBARA AND SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS
THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ARE DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES
FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY...EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S
NEAR THE CITIES TO THE LOWER 30S IN RURAL AREAS. PATCHES OF FROST
ARE POSSIBLE AS WE EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO REMAIN FAIRLY THIN UNTIL
LATER TOMORROW. KDAX SHOWS SOME WEAK ECHOES STILL WRAPPING AROUND
THE LOW NEAR THE SIERRA CREST AND NORTHERN SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY.
ISSUED MINOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES. SG

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION (ISSUED 3:30 PM TUESDAY)...
SURFACE LOW NOW NEAR MONTEREY BAY AND THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION. WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE NEAR THE SIERRA CREST THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF
OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...DO NOT BELIEVE IT
WILL BE THAT THICK AS OVERRUNNING HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING RAPIDLY
INLAND TOWARD THE COAST. THESE WILL INCREASE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S. WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE
COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE 18Z GFS BRINGS THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
INTO THE SHASTA COUNTY MOUNTAINS THURSDAY EVENING...THEN A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY HAS
LIMITED DYNAMICS BUT WILL BE FARTHER NORTH AS STRONG RIDGING BECOMES
RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN STATES. WE LOWERED THE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS FRIDAY AS THE ECMWF WAS MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND HAS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING
FASTER. SG

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...DRIER AND WARMER
OVER INTERIOR NORCAL SATURDAY AS THE AREA COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF UPPER RIDGING. COLD FRONT BRUSHES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR NORCAL SUNDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MODELS
SHOW RIDGING THEN STRENGTHENING AGAIN INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIP OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
INTERIOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS NOW DOMINATE THE VALLEY TAF SITES AND MOST OF OUR CWA.
THERE ARE A FEW LOCAL SPOTS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS...SUCH AS KAUN AND KPVF. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
TOMORROW AT TAF SITES. PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP IN PORTIONS OF THE
VALLEY WED MORNING CAUSING MVFR/IFR CONDS BUT MOST OF IT SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO 12-17Z.  JBB

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$