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000
FXUS62 KTBW 100055
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
755 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2010

.UPDATE...MAJORITY OF SHOWERS HAVE EXITED THE REGION AS MAIN BAND
OF MOISTURE MOVES OUT. SOME LARGE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NOTED ON
SATELLITE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT
THAT IS MOVING INTO COASTAL WATERS AT THIS TIME. COULD STILL SEE
AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE SOME CLOUDS WILL RETURN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS
COLD ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE GULF COAST. HAVE ALSO NOTED IN A FEW
OF THE LOCAL WEB CAMS WHAT APPEARS TO BE SOME SEA FOG MOVING
ONSHORE INTO PORTIONS OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT
LIVED THOUGH AS COOLER DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES IN THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT AND WILL UPDATE ZONE
FORECAST SHORTLY. OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH
NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 05Z AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL
PARTIALLY CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY TONIGHT...BUT PERIODS
OF STRATOCUMULUS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 4000 FEET WILL DEVELOP AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WATERS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AT 10 TO 20
KNOTS...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS.

VFR SHOULD THEN PREVAIL FROM WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT AND THEN SHIFT TO NORTH DURING WEDNESDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN SUBSIDE SOME ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. PRESENT MARINE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR
CHANGES PLANNED FOR LATE EVENING FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  46  55  35  57 /  20   0   0   5
FMY  53  61  38  65 /  20   0   0   5
GIF  45  57  35  60 /  20   0   0   5
SRQ  49  57  37  59 /  20   0   0   5
BKV  42  53  26  57 /  20   0   0   5
SPG  50  56  41  58 /  20   0   0   5

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
     FOR CITRUS-HERNANDO-LEVY-PASCO-SUMTER.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CHARLOTTE-
     CITRUS-DE SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-
     LEVY-MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR CHARLOTTE-CITRUS-DE
     SOTO-HARDEE-HERNANDO-HIGHLANDS-HILLSBOROUGH-LEE-LEVY-
     MANATEE-PASCO-PINELLAS-POLK-SARASOTA-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR BONITA BEACH
     TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO
     60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
     RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR TAMPA
     BAY WATERS.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/AVIATION...22/REYNES