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000
FXUS65 KVEF 100520 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
920 PM PST TUE FEB 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT THEN ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WEDNESDAY. THIS
STORM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO 4000 FEET IN SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA. AFTER THE STORM MOVES AWAY...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WITH
A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...TIGHTLY WOUND UPPER LOW PASSING JUST TO THE WEST OF PT.
CONCEPTION THIS EVENING. MAIN ACTION THIS EVENING IS OCCURRING
WITHIN THE BOUNDARIES OF CLARK...SOUTHERN NYE...INYO AND SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTIES. RAIN TOTALS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE YET WITH MOST
STATIONS AT OR BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH. SOME HEAVIER EMBEDDED
SHOWERS ARE STILL OUT THERE WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH SOME RAINFALL
TOTALS UP CLOSER TO A HALF AN INCH. NORTHERN LINCOLN/ESMERALDA AND
CENTRAL NYE COUNTIES WILL MORE THAN LIKELY MISS OUT ON MOST THE
ACTION AS THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST TONIGHT. DID TRIM BACK ON POPS SOME FOR
OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES THE REST OF TONIGHT AND WILL CANCEL THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE EAST SLOPE OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
AND WHITE MTNS HERE LATER THIS EVENING AS HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE
CONFINED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4500-5000 FEET AROUND DEATH
VALLEY...MOUNTAINS OF CLARK COUNTY AND HIGHER PEAKS IN THE MOJAVE
NATIONAL PRESERVE. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TOMORROW AS UPPER LOW TURNS INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO.
LAST OF THE SHOWERS WILL EXIT SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. DRY AND WARMER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. -PIERCE-
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...CLOUDS GENERALLY BKN AOA 5KT FEET BUT
BANDS OF SHOWERS TO LOWER CIGS BLO 3K FT WITH VSBY POSSIBLY LOWERING
TO 4SM THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. CIGS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY
TO AROUND 8-10K FEET. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 10KTS.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WIDESPREAD VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO...CLARK...AND MOHAVE COUNTIES.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY. CIGS DOWN TO AROUND 2-3K FEET WITH VSBYS AS LOW AS 2-3SM AT
TIMES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MOUNTAIN TOP
OBSCURATIONS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER 18Z
WEDNESDAY WITH CIGS RISING TO ABOVE 8K FEET. -JENSEN-
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...338 PM PST TUE FEB 9...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN THE
BROAD DIFFLUENT AREA OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARIZONA
THIS AFTERNOON. A DRY SLOT COULD BE SEEN BETWEEN THIS AREA AND THE
MORE INTENSE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE PUSHING
ACROSS THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS INTO THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE PREFERRED OVER THE NAM SOLUTION WITH
THE UPPER LOW CENTER STAYING SLIGHTLY OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST TONIGHT AND MOVING INTO NORTHERN BAJA BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z
WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS NOT QUITE AS PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS SPREADS A
WIDE AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO AND CLARK COUNTIES
TONIGHT...BUT KEEPS LAS VEGAS ALONG THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE
CONCENTRATED QPF. SHOULD THE LOW CENTER DRIFT SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWEST...THE PRECIP AREA COULD LARGELY MISS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
CLARK COUNTY OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR THE
SPRING MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
STILL LOOKS HIGHLY PROBABLE. THE START TIME OF THE WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR THE SPRING MOUNTAINS/SHEEP RANGE WAS BUMPED TO THE
CURRENT TIME DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW BEFORE THE MORE CONCENTRATED PRECIP ARRIVES LATER
THIS EVENING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF RELATIVELY QUICKLY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW HEADS TOWARD THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. DRY NORTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED MODELS AS HIGH PRESSURE
LOOKS TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE MODELS
ARE STILL DEPICTING A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND AFFECTING NORTHERN NEVADA FRIDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH ENERGY TO
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...BUT MAINLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ONCE THAT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...THE RIDGE
WILL STRENGTHEN AND TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR NVZ018-019.
AZ...NONE.
CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR
CAZ523>526.      WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM PST WEDNESDAY
FOR CAZ522. &&

$$

ADAIR/GORELOW

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