Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 032310
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
710 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
MID WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
H5 RIDGE SLIDES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. LIGHT S-SW FLOW RESULTS
IN WARMER MIN TMPS THAN PRVIOUS NIGHTS. LOWS L-M50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SFC HIGH BECOMES ANCHORED OFF THE MID ATLNTC COAST THRU MID WEEK.
MODELS DVLP A LEE TROF MON AFTRN BUT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF THE FA AS AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY CAPPED.
SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY DVLP MON AFTRN. MSTLY SUNNY AND WARM. HIGHS
L-M80S XCPT M-U70S COASTAL AREAS...65-70 AT THE BEACHES. MSTLY CLR
MON NIGHT. LOWS 55-60.

ALMOST THE SAME SETUP FOR TUE AS THE OFFSHORE RIDGE HOLDS FIRM
ACROSS THE REGION. ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE APPRCHG TROF TO
THE NORTH SAGS A BIT FRTHR SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY. STILL SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION CAN GET.
KEPT FCST DRY THRU 00Z WED. ANTHR WARM DAY WITH LCL SEA BREEZES
DVLPNG. HIGHS 80-85 XCPT 75-80 COASTAL AREAS...ARND 70 AT THE
BEACHES.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANY CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVING SE ALONG THE
APPRCHG FRNTL BNDRY TUE NIGHT. NAM/GFS PROGG ONE SUCH SYSTM TO TRACK
ACROSS THE VA NRN NECK / LWR MD ERN SHORE TUE NIGHT. WILL INDICATE
LOW CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TYPE OF EVENT. OTW...
MSTLY CLR TO PT CLDY. LOWS U50S-L60S.

SFC TROF OUT AHEAD OF MAIN FRNTL BNDRY APPRCHS FROM THE NW WED WITH
BEST CHCS FOR CONVECTION IN THE AFTRN / EVE ACROSS NWRN TWO THIRDS
OF FA. WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S-L80S...XCPT M70S CSTL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOLLOWED CLOSE TO WPC AND SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE FOR THE LONG TERM.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THEN WASHES OUT OVER SRN PORTIONS THURSDAY. A SURFACE HIGH
RIDGES INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A SUBTROPICAL STORM (SEE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK). DETAILS
OF THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW ARE UNCERTAIN BUT RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP THE LOW AND ITS IMPACT TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA.

DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM WITH POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT...MAINLY
OVER SRN AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT THURSDAY BEHIND THE BACK DOOR FRONT.
OVERALL...HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED RANGE THROUGH THE UPR 70S
TO LWR 80S EXCEPT UPR 60S TO LWR 70S NEAR THE COAST. LOWS RANGE FROM
THE UPR 50S TO LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. DUE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEW POINTS...NO FOG IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF
SITES. UNDER A CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT MAINLY FROM THE
SW. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH A BIT MORE WIND BY
AFTERNOON THAN TODAY...GENERALLY AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK. THERE
IS A SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS ACROSS NRN PORTIONS LATE TUESDAY WITH A
CHANCE ACROSS MOST OT HE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL MAINTAIN SCA FOR NC CSTL ZN UNTIL 7 PM...DUE TO SEAS STAYING
UP NEAR 5 FT. OTHERWISE...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF BENIGN CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL TNGT INTO WED MORNG...AS HI PRES OFF THE CSTL
CAROLINAS...WILL SLIDE OUT TO SEA. FAIRLY MINIMAL SYNOPTIC
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO DAILY SEABREEZES AND SOME
INCREASE IN S FLO (THO SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS). FM MON-WED...SEAS LOOK TO AVG 2-4 FT WHILE WAVES IN
THE BAY GENLY 1-2 FT. BACKDOOR COLD FRONT POSSIBLE LATER WED THRU
FRI...COMBINED WITH SFC LO OFF THE GA/SC CST WILL POTENTIALLY
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS AND SHIFT DIRECTIONS TO THE E/NE. ALSO...NEW
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASE IN SEAS FOR LATER THU THRU FRI.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...LSA
AVIATION...DAP/LSA
MARINE...TMG


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