Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 280007
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
807 PM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIT AND MISS SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL DOT CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INTO THIS EVENING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER...AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. A STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST AND BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS TO OUR REGION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
0715 PM UPDATE...WE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS EVENING AS
THE NEXT ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVES SOUTH AROUND THE UPPER
LOW TO OUR EAST. ALSO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE,
DEW POINT, AND WIND GRIDS BASED ON THE LATEST CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RADAR SHOWS ISLD SHRA AND SPRINKLES ACROSS
SWRN NY INTO NE PA AND THE CATSKILLS. THIS ACTVY WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL PV LOBE WORKING SOUTH ACRS NY INTO PA. THIS
PRECIP SHUD EXIT THESE AREAS BY EARLY EVENING. AFTER THIS WAVE
THERE IS A PERSISTENT N-NWRLY FLOW OF FAIRLY MOIST AIR ADVECTING S
ACRS NY AND NRN PA THRU TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT THE
MODELS INDICATE A LOW-LEVEL JET AT 850 MB MOVG SOUTH ACRS ERN NY
AND ERN PA WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. EVEN THOUGH ON THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE THERE WAS SOME SUBSC AT MID-LEVELS...THERE WAS ENUF
LIFTG FROM THE LL CONVERGENCE COMBINED W/ WEAK LL INSTABILITY AND
UPSLOPING TO TRIGGER A FEW MORE SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
INTO THE EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT ACVTY SHUD WANE AS JET WEAKENS
AND THE SUBSDC DROPS TO LOWER LEVELS. SKIES SHUD REMAIN CLOUDY ALL
NIGHT THOUGH.

FOR TUESDAY...PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER
AN INVERSION BTWN 850 MB AND 800 MB SO WE EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER WITH MAINLY OVC IN THE MORNING AND BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE STRG INSOLATION OF LATE APRIL. HENCE WE HAVE
LOWERED MAXES A TAD FROM GUIDC TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUDINESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR TUESDAY NGT...IT LOOKS LIKE SKIES WILL FINALLY CLEAR WITH STRG
SUBSC THAT REACHES DOWN TO 900 MB AS PER NAM...GFS AND SREF MODEL
SOUNDINGS. HENCE HAVE SKIES BECOMING EITHER MO CLR OR PC.

THEN FOR WEDNESDAY...WK RDGING WILL BE ACRS THE REGION WITH FAIR
WEATHER AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A RUN AT 70
DEGREES IN OUR VALLEYS...ESP IN NE PA.

FOR WEDNESDAY NGT...CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTH ACRS THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE VCNTY OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z THU.
THE SREF MEAN KEEPS THIS LOW AS AN UPPER TROUGH FARTHER N OVER
THE ERN LAKES. THE NAM ALSO HAS A CLOSED LOW ACRS THE ERN LAKES BY
12Z THU. THE 12Z EURO AND 12Z GFS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT HAVE THE
LOW FARTHER SOUTH. BASED ON THE EURO AND GFS NO PRECIP REACHES NE
PA OR C NY B4 12Z THU. THE SREF AND NAM WUD SUGGEST MAYBE A FEW
HUNDRETHS INTO NE PA/SC NY. FOR NOW GOING WITH DRY FORECAST LIKE
PREVIOUS SHIFT AND THE 12Z EURO/GFS.

FOR THURSDAY...ALL SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS INDICATE SOME LIGHT QPF
ACRS C NY AND NE PA. THE SREF HAS THE MOST GIVEN THAT THE MEAN
FIELDS DON/T CLOSE OFF THE 500 MB LOW AS FAR S AS THE OTHER
MODELS. THE SREF HAS THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE ERN OH. SO FOR
GRIDS...I HAVE SLGHT CHC IN THE MORNING ON THU IN NE PA/SC NY AND
CHC POPS BY AFTERNOON SAME AREAS WITH SLGHT CHC ALONG THE LAKE
ONTARIO PLAIN FARTHER N IN AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE TRACKING TOO FAR S FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IN ANY OF
OUR FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT. WARMER WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THU NGT TO FRI NGT A STORM MOVES SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES THEN NE OUT TO SEA. WEAK WAVES GO THROUGH
OUR AREA WITH MAYBE SOME SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH THAT
PRECIP WILL BE JUST RAIN.

THIS WEEKEND MAINLY DRY BUT WEAK FRONT GOES THROUGH BENEATH THE
RIDGE. LEFT POPS NEARLY THE SAME. FOLLOWED WPC AND EURO WITH SCHC
SUNDAY POPS. LATE MONDAY A SLOW MOVING AND BETTER COLD FRONT AND
UL WEAK TROF APPROACHES. HAVE CHC POPS STARTING MONDAY BUT IT WILL
PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL TUES AFTN.

FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE CLOSELY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOIST CYCLONIC NW FLOW WILL RESULT IN MVFR/LOW MVFR CIGS ACROSS
THE TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KAVP WHICH WILL REMAIN LOW VFR. LIGHT
SHOWERS WITHOUT VSBY RESTRICTIONS WILL OCCUR AT KITH/KELM/KBGM
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. DURING THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS
THE CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BUT REMAIN BROKEN.

TONIGHT NW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. TUESDAY MORNING WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NW AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AT 20-25 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT - THU...MAINLY VFR.

FRI - SAT...POSSIBLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH RAIN AND BR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/PCF
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...RRM


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