Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 040234
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
834 PM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...TODAY/S WX VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NV/SWRN ID BORDER...BUT ONE CELL
IN SERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY WAS STRONGER THAN ANY STORM YESTERDAY...
AND SHOWERS THIS EVENING ARE LASTING LONGER THAN YESTERDAY.  THIS
SUBTLE TREND WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AS UPPER FLOW SLOWLY BACKS FROM
WLY TO SWLY AND ALLOWS MOISTURE TO GET A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH INTO
SRN IDAHO ZONES.  ALSO SLIGHTLY WARMER MONDAY DUE TO THE MORE
SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT ALOFT.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS ALL THIS...
AND THIS EVENING/S SHOWERS ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER WILL END BEFORE
MIDNIGHT...SO NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND DISSIPATING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED 04/18Z THROUGH 05/04Z IN THE IDAHO CENTRAL
MTNS AND ALONG ID/NV BORDER. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12 KTS OR LESS.
WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10K FT MSL...WSW 10-20 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO INITIATE NEAR THE NV BORDER AND OVER THE FAR
EASTERN BOISE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY IS THERMALLY DRIVEN
SO SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. WESTERLY UPPER
FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND
TRANSPORTING MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST- CENTRAL MTNS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN BAKER COUNTY. IN THE ID MTNS FOCUS OF
THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOOKS TO BE EAST OF A YELLOWPINE TO ATLANTA
LINE. MONDAY IS THE WARMEST DAY WITH LOWER VALLEYS GETTING INTO
THE 80S AND MTN VALLEYS INTO THE LOW 70S. SE OREGON ZONES SEE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS MONDAY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A SHARP UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING THE PAC NW. THE WIND AND OR LINGERING CLOUDS
WILL KEEP MONDAY NIGHT MILD WITH THE POSSIBLY OF SHOWERS REMAINING
OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL OREGON AND WEST-CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS. ON
TUESDAY DRIER AIR AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL TO AREAS ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER AND IN THE CENTRAL IDAHO
MTNS...EAST OF MCCALL AND LOWMAN. TEMPERATURES COOL 8-14 DEGREES
FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY ON A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER ITS
INFLUENCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS IT SPLITS FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY EAST AND OUT OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY. THE
REGION WILL HAVE DAILY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY...MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...AND DAYTIME HEATING. CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN TIMING AND
LOCATION OF SHOWERS IS STILL LOW...BUT TRENDS ARE INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...COMING WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....AB



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