Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 070016 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
716 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS EVENING
INDICATE LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. CEILINGS
RANGE FROM 2000 FEET AT BRO TO 6000 FEET AT EBG. EXPECT VFR WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS EVENING.
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS LOW TO
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWS LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO
AROUND 1O KNOTS OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MID
MORNING WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND
18Z AT ALL RIO GRANDE VALLEY TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGES CONTINUE TO INDICATE STREAMER SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA THIS EVENING AS STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE DRAPED ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS THE MEXICAN
PLATEAU LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST
MEXICO. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA IF STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS
MEXICO AND MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN
CAPPED AS THE 500MB LOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES DROPS
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE
STREAMER SHOWERS DEVELOP UNDER THE CAP THURSDAY AS LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. MAV AND MET MOS
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TOO WARM FOR HIGHS SO WILL GO A
COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER THAN A BLEND BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS FOR
TEMPS THURS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM... FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE GREAT BASIN PROGRESSES EAST TO NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION WHILE RIDGE DOMINATES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRI INTO
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL SET UP A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS STRENGTHENING THE CAP ACROSS THE CWA.
AS THIS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST...LEE SIDE TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER
NORTHEAST CO EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST PORTION OF TEXAS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS FRI AND EVEN
MORE SO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...A DEFINED DRYLINE
DEVELOPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSES EWRD.
BETTER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WITH PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND UPPER JET MAX ENTERING WEST TEXAS...INC POTENTIAL
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS LIKELY. IN ADDITION...SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW INCREASES MOISTURE CONTENT PROVIDING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME THE BEST AREAS THAT
COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER NORTH WESTERN COUNTIES
WITH A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS OVER THE RGV SATURDAY IN THE AFTERNOON.
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT THE MAIN CHANGE
WILL BE SE WINDS INCREASE BETWEEN 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTY WINDS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

UPPER LOW TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST PUSH A FRONT SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD ENHANCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT
BUT THE MAIN BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA LIMITING RAINFALL
CHANCES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO NORTH CA AMPLYFING RIDGE AND
AS A RESULT INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS TEXAS. THIS WILL
SURGE DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND EVEN MORE WEDNESDAY AS THE
MOISTURE REMAINS STATIONARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THIS PATTERN SHOWING LOW MOVEMENT WHICH COULD CAUSE
FLOODING HAZARDS.

MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 6 FEET WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 12 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION SCEC FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS TONIGHT FOR WINDS AND SEAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
STRONG ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST THURSDAY AND MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LAGUNA MADRE THURSDAY WITH
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS OFFSHORE. EXPECT SCEC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
BAY WATERS FOR WINDS AND ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR SEAS
THURSDAY AS A RESULT.

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH A SERIES OF
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR FOR A STRENGTHENING PG RIGHT ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS GULF WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN DAYS THAT
WE COULD SEE SCA WILL BE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
6 TO 7 FEET AND SE WINDS INCREASING UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTY
WINDS. BY NEXT WEEK...THE GRADIENT RELAXES MORE WITH SE WINDS FEEDING
DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTION TO OCCUR LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE BUT COULD INITIATE STREAMER SHOWERS
TO INCREASE DURING THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD OVER THE GULF.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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