Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 050954
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
354 AM MDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

UNSETTLED WEATHER BEGINS TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE RIGHT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST TODAY AND REMAIN STATIONARY OR SLOWLY
SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN AREA DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA TODAY AND ESPECIALLY BE IN PLACE FOR
WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL SURFACE LOWS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES BRINGING A PREDOMINATELY SOUTHEAST SURFACE
FLOW ALLOWING FOR INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR BRING A VORT MAX OVER
OUR AREA TODAY RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
SHEAR IS A BIT BETTER TODAY BUT STILL NOT IMPRESSIVE. CAPES ARE
ALSO SLIGHTLY BETTER TODAY AND MORE WIDESPREAD SO THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE BETTER TODAY THAN TUESDAY. PRE-FRONTAL WARMING
TODAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND
80 DEGREES.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING
USHERING IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH READINGS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SO
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE AS GOOD AS TODAY. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE AND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF
WYOMING WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW GOOD WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE WITH THIS ALONG WITH DECENT QPF AMOUNTS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL RANGE
DURING THIS TIME FROM CUSTER AND POWDER RIVER COUNTIES EASTWARD.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
AND MOISTURE OUT OF THE THE AREA. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TRACK
WELL WITH EACH OTHER...WITH THE 00Z DATA HAVING MORE OF A CLOSED
LOW EJECTING FROM THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND...BUT IT TRACKS
MORE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS HAS THE EFFECT OF KEEPING THE
BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY SOUTH OF MONTANA. CONTINUE TO SEE
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SCATTERED PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN SOME
GIVEN THE TREND AWAY FROM A MORE FAVORABLE SOLUTION. THE COLUMN
IS NOT OVERLY SATURATED...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ONLY
AROUND A HALF INCH. THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION REMAINS
LOW. WITH THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WILL BE CLOUDY...THUS COOLER. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE BE IN THE 50S
FOR HIGHS. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...


VFR CONDITIONS EXPECT THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24. SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WILL MOVE
EAST IN THE ADJACENT PLAINS. LATEST HIRES MODELS SHOW ACTIVITY
STAYING WEST OF BILLINGS...LIMITING MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
LIVINGSTON AND SHERIDAN. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEER WILL CONTINUE
AROUND MILES CITY UNTIL AROUND MID MORNING BEFORE SURFACE WIND
BEGIN TO INCREASE. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 079 049/059 040/053 040/053 039/051 038/059 040/060
    2/T 43/W    22/W    24/W    55/W    43/W    32/W
LVM 076 043/061 036/050 034/048 034/050 034/059 035/060
    3/T 64/W    35/W    35/W    55/W    43/W    33/W
HDN 082 050/061 042/056 038/057 039/053 037/059 035/062
    1/B 34/W    22/W    23/W    55/W    43/W    32/W
MLS 079 051/060 041/055 037/056 038/054 037/057 038/061
    1/U 38/W    42/W    12/W    44/W    43/W    32/W
4BQ 075 051/061 043/055 035/055 039/052 035/053 034/059
    1/B 48/T    42/W    12/W    55/W    44/W    32/W
BHK 073 050/060 042/054 034/054 035/052 034/054 031/057
    1/N 39/T    72/W    12/W    44/W    33/W    22/W
SHR 075 048/054 037/053 035/054 038/050 035/051 032/058
    2/T 45/W    43/W    34/W    55/W    54/W    33/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.