Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 281702
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
102 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. A BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
100 PM UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST, AS A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES
TO PUSH WESTWARD OUT OF NEW BRUNSWICK. OTHERWISE, MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS TO MATCH THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION THIS MORNING
AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. WV
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ANOTHER SPOKE OF ENERGY THAT WILL AID
THESE SHOWERS TO MOVE SSW TODAY FROM THE MARITIMES. THE LATEST RUN
OF THE 3KM HRRR AND THE NAM MATCHING UP WELL W/THE LATEST
CONDITIONS AS THE GFS. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO INCREASE THE POPS FOR
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AND EXPAND THE AREAL COVERAGE AS
WELL. TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN IN THE MID 30S IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS W/DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S. PRECIP
COULD FALL AS A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN OR EVEN SOME SLEET THIS MORNING
BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM LATER THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE AFTERNOON WILL PRECIP IN THE FORM
OF RAIN. SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME INSTABILITY IN THE LLVLS
ESPECIALLY IN THE 0-3KM LAYER W/0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS. WINDS
WERE INCREASED TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SETUP.

RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF INTO EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LLVL CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL
FORCING WEAKEN. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK INTO THE
30S OVERNIGHT W/RAIN FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL
BE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAY ABOVE 1000 FT AS SOME SNOW COULD MIX
IN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES W/EASTERN AREAS NEAR THE MAINE-NEW
BRUNSWICK BORDER SEEING UP TO 0.25 INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WE COULD
STILL SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE
EXPECT THE UPPER LOW TO BE REPLACED BY RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGHS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WE
COULD BE LOOKING AT HIGHS REACHING CLOSE TO 70 DEGREES IN SOME
AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR THIS MORNING W/PERIODS OF VFR. MVFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST TO RETURN FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WHILE KBGR AND KBHB ARE EXPECTED TO SEE
CONDITIONS GO TO VFR. ALL TERMINALS TO EXPERIENCE VFR INTO EARLY
TONIGHT AND THEN CONDITIONS COULD DROP BACK TO MVFR BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOWER CIGS MOVING IN FROM NEW BRUNSWICK.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 11 AM UPDATE...HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE AS WINDS AND HAVES ARE AT MARGINAL LEVELS AND WILL REMAIN
SO THROUGH THE DAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WINDS/SEAS RIGHT SCA LEVELS AND WINDS TO
PICK UP AFTER 12Z(8AM). THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL STAY AS IS
FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A FEW MORE HRS W/THAT SECOND
SURGE OF WIND MENTIONED ABOVE. SOME OF THE SOUNDING DATA
ESPECIALLY THE NAM SHOW A BRIEF SURGE OF WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY AT THE JONESPORT BUOY(44027). THIS SURGE LOOKS LIKE IT
DROPS OFF AFTER 00Z(8PM) AS WINDS DROP OFF TO 15-20 KTS. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO DOWN TO 2-4 FT.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS MAY THEN INCREASE THE SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND AS AN OCEAN STORM TRACKS TO OUR EAST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA



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