Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 070546
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
146 AM EDT THU MAY 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN STATES TODAY AND FRIDAY
AND BEGIN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID...BUT
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE-WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS IN TWO BIG PATCHES OVER THE REGION AT 0530Z. A BREAK IN
THE CLOUDS OVER KIPT/KUNV AND AREAS DIRECTLY TO THE SOUTH WILL
LIKELY CLOSE UP THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WHILE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE MORNING. MUCH OF THE
AREA SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY. NO REAL RISK FOR A SHOWER...BUT THE
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW COULD WRING OUT A PATCH OF DRIZZLE. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A RIDGE PUMPS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND SHOULD CUT OFF THE MOISTURE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST. BUT BEFORE THE MOISTURE DECREASES TOO MUCH...THE DAYTIME
HEATING ON THURS COULD POP ISOLD/SCT AFTN SHRA OFF OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN - MAINLY OVER THE NRN MTNS AND THE LAURELS WHERE SFC
BASED CAPES WILL ONCE AGAIN GET NEAR 1000 J/KG DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN JUST 20-30 POP THERE.

A STRAY...BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THAT AREA...BUT NOT
ENOUGH OF A CHC EXISTS TO MENTION PRECIP AT THIS POINT. MUCH OF
THE MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD DISSOLVE FROM SW TO NE AS THE WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH. GIVEN THE ALREADY CLOUDY
AND VERY MILD WARM START TO THE DAY...MAX TEMPS WILL REACH ABOUT
10F ABOVE NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL HAVE A DECIDEDLY SUMMER-TIME LOOK AND
FEEL WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. THE PCPN PATTERN
FAVORS ISOLD TO WDLY SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI-SUN WITH AN UPTICK
IN COVERAGE LKLY MON-TUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST FROM
THE OH VLY. HIGHEST NDFD POPS CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED IN THE MON-
TUE TIMEFRAME.

MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS NOW PROVIDING BETTER VISIBILITY IN
A TRANSITION FROM RIDGE TO TROUGHING PATTERN BY DAY 7-8/NEXT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING CENTRAL
PA. A COOLER WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD FOLLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN THROUGH MID-WEEK. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN
TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH ONE OR TWO
RELATIVELY CHILLY MORNINGS POSSIBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEK ESPECIALLY
IN THE NRN ZONES.

LATEST MODEL QPF/S SUGGEST MSTR AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL LOW NEAR/ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST MAY BE TRYING TO
EXTEND A LITTLE FARTHER NWD THROUGH THE MID ATLC PIEDMONT THAN IN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THAT SAID THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPECTED TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO NOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE AREA WITH SIGNIFICANT
PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW COUPLED WITH LOW STRATOCU HAS ALLOWED FOR IFR
AND LOWER CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE REGION AROUND BFD. WITH
NOTHING TO CHANGE CONDITIONS EXPECT THESE SKIES TO PERSIST OVER
BFD THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...LIGHT WINDS AND PARTIAL CLEARING TONIGHT WILL COMBINE
WITH MDTLY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO PRODUCE AREAS OF
FOG...SOME LOCALLY DENSE WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS POSSIBLE
AT NUMEROUS AIRFIELDS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TONIGHT /04Z/ AND 12Z
THURSDAY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN THIS AFTERNOONS AND
EVENING RAINFALL. EXPECT REDUCING CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVING TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING...AND VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVER WRN
PENN AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NW...AND DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
CENTRAL PA.

OUTLOOK...

THU...AM LOW CIGS/FOG POSS...ESP KJST.

FRI-SAT...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSS W MTNS.

SUN...SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTM ACTIVITY WITH COLD FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...LAMBERT/CERU


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