Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 270917
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
317 AM MDT MON APR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL OCCUR TODAY AS A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. WINDS
WILL LIGHTER TODAY BUT STILL COULD BE LOCALLY WINDY ALONG WEST
SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR THE GILA REGION ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
A CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NEW
MEXICO TRACKING SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL
REMAIN UNSETTLED TODAY AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND IMPULSES ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY NORTH AND EAST OF LAS
CRUCES. THOUGH PORTIONS OF BOTH THE LAS CRUCES AND EL PASO METRO
AREAS MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN DOWN AROUND
7500 FEET WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE FOR BOTH THE GILA
REGION AND THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER TWO INCHES FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 8000 FEET.

WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LOWER TODAY AS WINDS SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTH
BY MID DAY AND THEN TO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SHIFT
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATER
TODAY. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LOCALLY WINDY ALONG WEST FACING
SLOPES OF AREA MOUNTAINS AS RESULT OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
FLOW COLDER AIR ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES DEPRESSED WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WHICH WILL
BE REINFORCED BY THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES IN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RESULT WILL BE AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S TODAY AND TOMORROW.  BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE GILA
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME QUIETER FOR THE LATTER PART
OF THIS WEEK AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL RESULT DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WEDNESDAYS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
TUESDAYS BUT WILL STILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY WHICH MEANS LOWER 80S FOR THE
LOWLANDS. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF MID TO UPPER 80S
EXPECTED. WINDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL ERODE AND SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A MODEST TRANSPORT
OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. A WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
WILL ACT ON THIS MOISTURE TO HELP TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE HIGH BASED AND PRODUCE VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION BUT DRY
LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. NEXT SUNDAY MAY
BE A QUIETER WEATHER DAY WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW...BUT LONG
RANGE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO IMPACT
THE AREA NEXT MONDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 27/12Z-28/12Z...
AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MOSTLY NORTH AND EAST OF KLRU
THROUGH 23Z. CIGS WILL BE AT 4KFT AGL IN THE SHOWERS...LOWER OVER
THE MOUNTAINS. VSBY WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5SM FOR MOST LOWLAND AREAS
WITH 3-5SM IN THE MOUNTAINS. MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BE OBSCURED FROM
LOW HANGING CLOUDS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM WEST TO NORTH BY 18Z AND
THEN TO NORTHEAST BY 00Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 12 TO 16 KNOTS AFT
18Z. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL AREAS AFT 00Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LINGERING SHOWERS ROTATING SOUTH ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF A SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TO AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF LAS CRUCES TODAY.
LOWER WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH EXPECTED AS WINDS SHIFT FROM
WEST TO NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A FRONT THAT WILL PUSH
INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY. MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES ABOVE 7500 FEET WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THAT
SHOULD QUICKLY MELT. WINDS WILL LOCALLY GUSTY ALONG WEST SLOPES OF
AREA MOUNTAINS LATER TONIGHT AS PART OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. A
FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE GILA REGION WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY AND COOL WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR
ON SATURDAY THAT WILL BRING A MODEST AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOSTLY DRY HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS.
A LARGER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 70  45  69  45  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           66  39  63  41  71 /  20   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              68  40  68  40  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              65  38  67  40  73 /  20  10   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              44  27  48  31  56 /  50  20  10   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   65  40  68  42  75 /  20  10   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             63  38  63  38  69 /  30  10   0   0   0
DEMING                  70  40  69  39  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               70  40  70  40  76 /  10   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      69  46  68  46  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               66  39  65  39  73 /  20  10   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            70  43  68  43  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              63  41  63  43  69 /  10  10   0   0   0
FABENS                  69  42  67  42  74 /  10   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            69  41  67  42  73 /  10   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          66  44  66  46  73 /  10   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           67  35  68  36  74 /  20   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   69  39  69  39  75 /  20  10   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                70  44  67  44  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               65  42  66  42  72 /  20  10   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 49  30  53  33  62 /  50  20  10   0   0
MESCALERO               50  29  55  32  62 /  50  20   0   0   0
TIMBERON                51  32  54  34  61 /  40  20   0   0   0
WINSTON                 59  32  61  34  68 /  30  20  10   0   0
HILLSBORO               65  37  67  38  73 /  20  10   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               66  35  68  37  75 /  20  10   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            60  35  63  36  69 /  30  20  10  10   0
HURLEY                  65  37  65  37  70 /  20  10   0   0   0
CLIFF                   69  38  71  37  76 /  30  10  10   0   0
MULE CREEK              68  33  69  33  74 /  20  10  10   0   0
FAYWOOD                 64  38  65  38  71 /  20  10   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  71  43  70  42  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 71  40  70  40  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          70  40  69  40  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              68  40  67  40  73 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04 LUNDEEN





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